Envisioning the future and learning from the past: Adapting to a changing environment in northern Mali

In West Africa, rural livelihoods depending on natural resources develop coping and adapting strategies to face climate variability or change and economic or political changes. The former Lake Faguibine in northern Mali has experienced drastic ecological, social, and economic changes. Forests have emerged on the former lake and have become important for local livelihoods. This paper analyses the coping and adapting strategies of forest- and livestock-based livelihoods facing ecological changes. Results from field research at different levels indicate that most local strategies are based on diversification including migration within the livestock production system or in complement to it, with differences according to gender, age, and ethnicity. Political discourses, cultural identities, and past experiences influence and shape adaptation strategies at the local level. The sustainability of the observed strategies depends on the access to natural resources and the sustainable management of these resources, which in turn depends on institutions at local and national levels. Many local strategies are reactive to external events but would need strategic support from higher levels to move from coping to adapting. Examples are the development of institutions and technical actions for natural resource management, as well as development actions supporting local strategies and sustainable investments. Researchers, practitioners and development planners will need simple methods and tools for understanding and analysing local adaptation perceptions and actions to achieve an effective support of sustainable and gender-equitable local adaptation and to avoid mismatches between strategies proposed by local and by sub national and national actors.

The role of fish and fisheries in recovering from natural hazards: Lessons learned from Vanuatu

Coastal fisheries provide staple food and sources of livelihood in Pacific Island countries, and securing a sustainable supply is recognised as a critical priority for nutrition security. This study sought to better understand the role of fish for Pacific Island communities during disasters and in disaster recovery. To evaluate community impacts and responses after natural disasters, focus group discussions were held with men and women groups at ten sites across Shefa, Tafea, Malampa and Sanma provinces in Vanuatu. The combined impacts of category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam (TC-Pam) in March 2015 and prolonged El-Niño induced drought have had a profound impact across much of Vanuatu. Terrestrial systems had been disproportionately impacted with substantial shortages in drinking water, garden crops, cash crops and damage to infrastructure. Localized impacts were noted on marine environments from TC-Pam and the drought, along with an earthquake that uplifted reef and destroyed fishing grounds in Malampa province. Communities in Malampa and Shefa provinces also noted a crown-of-thorns outbreak that caused coral mortality. The significant reduction in terrestrial-based food and income generation capacity generally led to increased reliance on marine resources to cope and a shift in diets from local garden food to rice. However, limited market access, lack of fishing skills and technology in many sectors of the community reduced the capacity for marine resources to support recovery. A flexible management approach allowed protected areas and species to be utilized as reservoirs of food and income when temporarily opened to assist recovery. These findings illustrate that fish and fisheries management is at the center of disaster preparedness and relief strategies in remote Pacific Island communities. High physical capital (e.g. infrastructure, water tanks and strong dwellings) is key for disaster preparedness, but supporting community social capital for the purpose of natural resource management and human capital for diverse adaptation skills can also improve community resilience. Recognizing the humanitarian value that well managed fisheries resources and skilled fishers can play to disaster relief adds another dimension to the imperative of improving management of coastal fisheries and aligning policies across sectors.

Interannual variability in competitive effects in mixed and monospecific forests of Mediterranean stone pine

The management of species composition and competition are two of the main adaptive options that forest managers propose to cope with the expected negative impacts of climate change on forest growth in the Mediterranean basin. Species mixture can improve the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystems to face up global change. However, it seems likely that global change will modify mixed stands dynamics. Thus, studying inter-tree relationships on an annual basis is key to understanding ecosystem dynamics in the region. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the effects of tree species composition and competition on Pinus pinea annual secondary growth in mixed vs. monospecific stands over a period of 15. years with contrasting climatic conditions. We obtained basal area growth data from tree ring measurement on cores and cross section slices from 372 trees of P. pinea L. ., Juniperus thurifera L., Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.)) Samp. and Quercus faginea Lam., in the Spanish Northern plateau, approximately half of which were in monospecific stands and half in mixed stands. We analysed the effect of intra and interspecific competition on P. pinea secondary growth comparing the performance of several distance dependent competition indexes through linear mixed models. These competition indices were calculated for all trees within each plot for each year of study. The results showed competitive reduction and tree growth amelioration in mixed vs. monospecific stands of P. pinea indicating a spatial and temporal niche separation between species and size-symmetric effects for interspecific competition. Size-asymmetric results obtained for competition within pines indicated that the largest individuals obtain the majority of the contested resources suppressing the growth of their smaller pine neighbours. Intraspecific interactions were more negative than interspecific interactions. And we finally provide evidence of a growth enhancement in mixed vs. monospecific stands in water stressed years indicating that the promotion of mixtures in P. pinea stands is a powerful management tool to buffer the effects of climate change in the region.

Trees for life: The ecosystem service contribution of trees to food production and livelihoods in the tropics

Despite expanding interest in ecosystem service research over the past three decades, in-depth understanding of the contribution of forests and trees to food production and livelihoods remains limited. This review synthesizes the current evidence base examining the contribution of forest and trees to agricultural production and livelihoods in the tropics, where production often occurs within complex land use mosaics that are increasingly subjected to concomitant climatic and anthropogenic pressures. Using systematic review methodology we found 74 studies investigating the effect of forest or tree-based ecosystem service provision on a range of outcomes such as crop yield, biomass, soil fertility, and income. Our findings suggest that when incorporating forests and trees within an appropriate and contextualized natural resource management strategy, there is potential to maintain, and in some cases, enhance yields comparable to solely monoculture systems. Furthermore, this review has illustrated the potential of achieving net livelihood gains through integrating trees on farms, providing rural farmers with additional income sources, and greater resilience strategies to adapt to market or climatic shocks. However, we also identify significant gaps in the current knowledge that demonstrate a need for larger-scale, longer term research to better understand the contribution of forest and trees within the broader landscape and their associated impacts on livelihoods and food production systems.

Different land management measures and climate change impacts on the runoff – A simple empirical method derived in a mesoscale catchment on the Loess Plateau

Large-scale vegetation restoration and climate change triggered a significant decline in runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and its tributaries. This runoff decline intensifies inherent water shortage and results in more severe water use conflicts that are threatening sustainable development in the Loess Plateau. Innovative strategies for more water-efficient land management are essential. To this end, the factors controlling runoff were investigated using the upstream area of the Jing River as an example. Runoff was found to be mainly controlled by evaporative demand, precipitation, and land cover type. Budyko’s frameworks were applied to predict the annual and long-term runoff; however, the effect of changes in land management (e.g., afforestation) on runoff cannot be assessed due to lack of vegetation factors. Therefore, an empirical analysis tool was derived based on an existing relationship for runoff estimation. This method was found to be more effective in reproducing the annual and long-term runoff than others. The incorporation of temporal changes in land cover and form in approach enables the estimation of the possible impact of soil conservation measures (e.g., afforestation or terracing). Our study highlights the importance of adaptive land management strategies for mitigating water shortage on the Loess Plateau.

Adapting livestock management to spatio-temporal heterogeneity in semi-arid rangelands

Management strategies in rotational grazing systems differ in their level of complexity and adaptivity. Different components of such grazing strategies are expected to allow for adaptation to environmental heterogeneities in space and time. However, most models investigating general principles of rangeland management strategies neglect spatio-temporal system properties including seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of environmental variables. We developed an ecological-economic rangeland model that combines a spatially explicit farm structure with intra-annual time steps. This allows investigating different management components in rotational grazing systems (including stocking and rotation rules) and evaluating their effect on the ecological and economic states of semi-arid grazing systems. Our results show that adaptive stocking is less sensitive to overstocking compared to a constant stocking strategy. Furthermore, the rotation rule becomes important only at stocking numbers that maximize expected income. Altogether, the best of the tested strategies is adaptive stocking combined with a rotation that adapts to both spatial forage availability and seasonality. This management strategy maximises mean income and at the same time maintains the rangeland in a viable condition. However, we could also show that inappropriate adaptation that neglects seasonality even leads to deterioration. Rangelands characterised by higher inter-annual climate variability show a higher risk of income losses under a non-adaptive stocking rule, and non-adaptive rotation is least able to buffer increasing climate variability. Overall, all important system properties including seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of available resources need to be considered when designing an appropriate rangeland management system. Resulting adaptive rotational grazing strategies can be valuable for improving management and mitigating income risks.

Impact of possible climate and land use changes in the semi arid regions: A case study from North Eastern Brazil

This paper combines hydrological observations and modelling results of a semi arid catchment in Brazil that could lead to a better understanding of the hydrology of similar catchments in semi-arid regions. The Tapacura catchment (area 470.5 km(2)) in the Northeast of Brazil was selected for this study. The Distributed Catchment Scale Model, DiCaSM, was calibrated and validated for the stream flows of the Tapacura catchment. The model performance was further tested by comparing simulated and observed scaled soil moisture. The results showed the ability of the model to simulate the stream flow and the scaled soil moisture. The simulated impacts of climate change of low emission (B1) scenarios, on the worst perspective, indicated the possibility of reduction in surface water availability by -13.90%, -22.63% and -.32.91% in groundwater recharge and by -4.98%, -14.28% and -20.58% in surface flows for the time spans 20102039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099, respectively. This would cause severe impacts on water supply in the region. Changing the land use, for example by reforestation of part of the catchment area which is currently arable land, would lead to a decrease in both groundwater recharge by -4.2% and stream flow by -2.7%. Changing land use from vegetables to sugar cane would result in decreasing groundwater recharge by almost -11%, and increasing stream flow by almost 5%. The combination of possible impacts of climate change and land use requires a proper plan for water resources management and mitigation strategies.

Framework for studying the hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system

Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice whereby crops are grown between hedgerows of trees planted at wide spacings. The local climate and the physiological adaptation mechanisms of the trees are key factors in the growth and survival of the trees and intercrops, because they directly affect the soil moisture distribution. In order to evaluate the long-term hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system in eastern Canada, we developed a framework that combines local soil moisture data with local projections of climate change and a model of soil water movement, root uptake and evapotranspiration. Forty-five frequency domain reflectometers (FDR) along a transect perpendicular to the tree rows generated a two-year dataset that we used for the parameterization and evaluation of the model. An impact study with simulations based on local projections of three global and one regional climate simulation suggest that the soil becomes drier overall in the period between 2041 and 2070, while the number of critically wet periods with a length of one day increases slightly with respect to the reference period between 1967 and 1996. Hydrological simulations based on a fourth climate scenario however point toward wetter conditions. In all cases the changes are minor. Although our simulations indicate that the experimental alley cropping system will possibly suffer drier conditions in response to higher temperatures and increased evaporative demand, these conditions are not necessarily critical for vegetation during the snow-free season.

Knowing but not knowing: Systematic conservation planning and community conservation in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) seeks to propose new reserves through a scientifically rigorous process using databases and research selection algorithims. However, SCP exercises have been criticized for “knowing but not doing”, i.e. not implementing the proposed reserve. But there is an additional problem that can be called “knowing but not knowing”, knowing things from databases, but not knowing crucial contextual information about community-based social processes that have supported the high forest cover and biodiversity detected. Examined here is how a common property region of the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico has maintained high forest cover in the absence of public protected areas, while multiple SCP exercises have advocated for the creation of public protected areas in communal tropical montane cloud forests and pine forests as strategies for biodiversity conservation and resilience to climate change. Methods included archival research, review of community documents, focus group interviews, semi-structured interviews, participant observation, land use transects, and GIS analysis and remote sensing. Conservation in the region originally occurred because of low population densities, steep slopes and a lack of agricultural subsidies, supported by locally adapted agricultural practices. In the 1990s, a transition from passive to active conservation took place with land use zoning plans, community conservation rules, community forestry enterprises and payments for environmental service programs that consolidated a trend towards high, unthreatened forest cover. Today, the study communities have an average of 88.3% forest cover, with 61% of that in informal conservation based on community land use zoning and rules and another 14% governed by forest management plans approved by the Mexican government. We argue thattruly systematic conservation plans would seek to understand how communities in the region are already managing forests for conservation. It is pointless and uninformed to advocate for top-down conservation interventions of forests that are already robustly conserved and resilient to climate change due to community action.

Long term anthropogenic changes and ecosystem service consequences in the northern part of the complex Rhine-Meuse estuarine system

Around 0 AD, the Rhine-Meuse estuary in the southwest of the Netherlands was a typical coastal plain estuary. Drainage of peatland and land subsidence behind the dunes later caused the sea to penetrate into the land. Most of the peat was eroded, and by 1000 AD the so-called Delta area had turned into a landscape of large estuaries and intertidal zones. Rotterdam developed from a small fishing village on the banks of the tidal river “Nieuwe Maas” from the 14th century onwards into the largest seaport of Europe in 2013. The Rotterdam harbour area situated in the northern part of the Delta area includes the former Europoort harbour, and is nowadays known as Rijnmond. The hydrology of the area is controlled by the drainage regime of the sluices in the Haringvliet barrier that was constructed as part of the “Delta Works” project to protect the southwest of the Netherlands against storm surges. The sluices are opened at slack tide to discharge river water to the sea and are always closed at flood tide. As a baseline study for environmental and ecological reconstruction and development, we describe in detail the loss of intertidal soft sediment ecotopes due to land reclamation, harbour development and river training works (straightening of the navigational channel) in the tidal rivers, and the expansion of hard substrate ecotopes (quay walls, groynes, training walls, riprap, concrete, stones etc.) in the Rijnmond area in the 19th and 20th centuries. Within 135 years, more than 99% of the original 4775 ha of characteristic pristine soft sediment estuarine ecotopes have disappeared. In the same period, 338 ha of hard intertidal substrate zone was constructed. Such trends can also be observed in harbour areas elsewhere, and have ecological and environmental consequences for estuarine areas in particular. Restoration of soft substrate estuarine ecotopes can be achieved by opening the Haringvliet Sluices at both ebb and flood tide, which would restore large-scale estuarine dynamics to the northern part of the Rhine-Meuse estuarine system. This will have a highly favourable effect on many ecosystem services. The Dutch division of the Word Wild Life Fund has launched a new proposal for a safer and more attractive South-West Delta area. It comprises the reopening of the sea inlets such as the Haringvliet by removing the barriers, and building climateproof dikes in combination with natural wetlands. In case of storm surges, the hinterland could be protected with a new generation of barriers that do not hamper the free transport of sediment, tides and animals. Based on 30 ecosystem services or subservices, it was calculated that opening the Haringvliet inlet would lead to an increase in Total Economic Value (TEV) of at least 500 million Euro per year. The costs of removing old barriers and the construction of new ones was not included in the calculations.

How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate – A case study in arid northern China

Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers’ livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the ecoenvironment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change.

Results of a paired catchment analysis of forest thinning in Turkey in relation to forest management options

Adaptation to climate change has become a more serious concern as IPCC assessment reports estimate a rise of up to 2 degrees C in average global temperatures by the end of the century. Several recently published studies have underlined the importance of forest management in mitigating the impacts of climate change and in supporting the adaptation capacity of the ecosystem. This study focuses on the role of water-related forest services in this adaptation process. The effects of forestry practices on streamflow can best be determined by paired watershed analysis. The impact of two cutting treatments on runoff was analyzed by a paired experimental watershed study in the Belgrade Forest and the results were evaluated in relation to similar experiments conducted around the world. Forest thinning treatments at 11% and 18% were carried out in a mature oak-beech forest ecosystem over different time periods. Although the thinning increased the runoff statistically, the amount of surplus water remained <5% of the annual water yield. Evidently, the hydrologic response of the watersheds was low due to the reduced intensity of the timber harvest. Finally, the results were combined with those of global studies on thinning, clearcutting and species conversion with the aim of formulating management options for adaptation.

Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world’s drylands

Drought is one of the major constraints affecting food security and livelihoods of more than two billion people that reside on dry areas which constitute 41% of the world’s land surface. Drought is defined as deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time resulting in water scarcity. Our best minds should be concentrated where the greatest challenges lie today – on discoveries and new solutions to cope with the challenges facing dry areas particularly drought and water scarcity. In addition to facing severe natural resource constraints caused by the lack of water in many of the developing world’s drylands, we also have to cope with rapid growth of the younger segment of the growing population, and high levels of poverty. Coping with drought and water scarcity are critical to address major development challenges in dry areas namely poverty, hunger, environmental degradation and social conflict. Drought is a climatic event that cannot be prevented, but interventions and preparedness to drought can help to: (i) be better prepared to cope with drought; (ii) develop more resilient ecosystems (iii) improve resilience to recover from drought; and (iv) mitigate the impacts of droughts. Preparedness strategies to drought include: (a) geographical shifts of agricultural systems; (b) climate-proofing rainfall-based systems; (c) making irrigated systems more efficient; (d) expanding the intermediate rainfed-irrigated systems. The paper presents successful research results and case studies applying some innovative techniques where clear impact is demonstrated to cope with drought and contribute to food security in dry areas. The CGIAR Consortium Research Program (CRP) on ‘Integrated and Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas’ (in short, ‘Dryland Systems’), led by ICARDA, was launched in May 2013 with many partners and stakeholders from 40 countries. It addresses farming systems in dry areas, at a global level, involving 80 partner institutions. The Dryland Systems Program aims at coping with drought and water scarcity to enhance food security and reduce poverty in dry areas through an integrated agro-ecosystem approach. It will also deliver science-based solutions that can be adopted in regions that are not yet experiencing extreme shocks, but will be affected in the medium to long-term. The approach entails shifting the thinking away from the traditional focus on a small number of research components to take an integrated approach aiming to address agro-ecosystems challenges. Such an approach involves crops, livestock, rangeland, trees, soils, water and policies. It is one of the first global research for development efforts that brings ‘systems thinking’ to farming innovations leading to improved livelihoods in the developing world. The new technique uses modern innovation platforms to involve all stakeholders, adopting the value chain concept along a research-to-impact pathway for enhanced food security and improved livelihoods in dry areas.

Local food production in a subarctic Indigenous community: the use of willow (Salix spp.) windbreaks to increase the yield of intercropped potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) and bush beans (Phaseolus vulgaris)

Addressing food security with local and sustainable food production is a key requirement for supporting a globally sustainable agricultural system. Food insecurity is prevalent in Indigenous communities in Canada, especially in rural and remote regions of northern (subarctic and arctic) Canada. Further, climate change has disproportionately impacted subarctic and arctic regions worldwide − surface air temperatures are now more favourable for agricultural activities − offering the potential for local food production under ambient conditions. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate bush bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) intercrops grown over a two-year period in two sites (treed, windbreak-lined with native willow, Salix. spp.; and non-treed, or open) in the subarctic Indigenous community of Fort Albany First Nation, Ontario, Canada. Intercrops grown in the windbreak-lined site produced significantly greater (p < 0.05) yields and biomass than the open site. An analysis of soil chemistry (pH, P, K, Mg, NO3, NH4 and total N) showed that with some local amendments such as offal and bone meal, both the windbreak-lined and open sites can support continued agricultural use. This study informs Indigenous communities across subarctic regions of the world that climate change not only brings challenges, but also opportunities, such as potentially sustainable local food production.

Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

A changing climate will inevitably impact on the natural environment, including agriculture. Anticipatory adaptation is necessary to minimise the negative impacts of climate change, to take advantage of opportunities, and to ensure that food and fibre production is maintained. More detailed information is required as to which adaptation measures will yield relatively greater social rates of return. Such information would help define an efficient adaptation agenda in the agricultural sector. This article identifies key adaptation strategies across England’s agricultural sector, and applies cost–benefit analysis to these to determine their net present values, highlighting where the greatest returns can be made, and the role for policy. The results span a wide range, with some soil management activities indicating a negative NPV of £122 million over the course of this century, to a positive NPV of £3,279 million in the case of some livestock adaptations to heat stress. Animal disease surveillance and peatland restoration also generated high NPVs of £1,850 million and £1,840 million, respectively. Adaptations addressing crop disease, water storage measures and managed coastal realignment generated more modest values ranging from £1 million to £61 million. Direct comparison of the numbers is misleading however as some refer to the national level while others are site‐specific. The analysis provides a basis for a discussion on priorities and planning for adaptation in the agricultural sector.

Selecting cost-effective areas for restoration of ecosystem services

Selection of areas for restoration should be based on cost-effectiveness analysis to attain the maximum benefit with a limited budget and overcome the traditional ad hoc allocation of funds for restoration projects. Restoration projects need to be planned on the basis of ecological knowledge and economic and social constraints. We devised a novel approach for selecting cost-effective areas for restoration on the basis of biodiversity and potential provision of 3 ecosystem services: carbon storage, water depuration, and coastal protection. We used Marxan, a spatial prioritization tool, to balance the provision of ecosystem services against the cost of restoration. We tested this approach in a mangrove ecosystem in the Caribbean. Our approach efficiently selected restoration areas that at low cost were compatible with biodiversity targets and that maximized the provision of one or more ecosystem services. Choosing areas for restoration of mangroves on the basis carbon storage potential, largely guaranteed the restoration of biodiversity and other ecosystem services

A quantitative evaluation of the multiple narratives of the recent Sahelian regreening

A spatial analysis is presented that aims to synthesize the evidence for climate and social dimensions of the ‘regreening” of the Sahel. Using an independently constructed archival database of donor-funded interventions in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Senegal in response to the persistence of drought in the 1970s and 1980s, the spatial distribution of these interventions is examined in relation to population density and to trends in precipitation and in greenness. Three categories of environmental change are classified: 1) regions at the northern grassland/shrubland edge of the Sahel where NDVI varies interannually with precipitation, 2) densely populated cropland regions of the Sahel where significant trends in precipitation and NDVI decouple at interannual time scales, and 3) regions at the southern savanna edge of the Sahel where NDVI variation is independent of precipitation. Examination of the spatial distribution of environmental change, number of development projects, and population density brings to the fore the second category, covering the cropland areas where population density and regreening are higher than average. While few, regions in this category coincide with emerging hotspots of regreening in northern Burkina Faso and southern central Niger known from case study literature. In examining the impact of efforts to rejuvenate the Sahelian environment and livelihoods in the aftermath of the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s against the backdrop of a varying and uncertain climate, the transition from desertification to regreening discourses is framed in the context of adaptation to climate change.

Measurements and Modelling of Small Scale Processes of Vegetation Preventing Dune Erosion

Traditionally, actions taken to reduce vulnerability to beach erosion have been based on protecting economic resources, recreational activities and human lives. Hard infrastructure for coastal protection has proven effective, but the side effects have been called into question, given that making the coastal system more rigid alters the natural dynamics, degrades environmental services and damages the landscape. Ecosystem based coastal defence strategies are now seen as a more environmentally friendly alternative which can maintain and even increase the resilience and resistance of coastal zones. This work aims to improve the understanding of the behaviour of nature-based coastal defences by analysing the morphodynamic response of a dune-beach system with vegetation to storms. Small scale tests were performed in which beach profiles with natural dune vegetation were exposed to high energy waves. Free surface elevation and velocity profiles were recorded during the tests and the profile evolution was measured at the end of each experiment. Erosion regimes of collision and overwash were observed in the dune profiles with a berm, whereas swash and overwash regimes were observed when no berm was present. Retarding erosion time seems to be the most relevant morphological effect of the dune vegetation, which gives a slight, but relevant, contribution to the resilience and resistance of the beach profile. In turn, the wave breaking point is displaced seawards and bed velocities close to the shoreline are lower when vegetation is present, both of which explain the protective role of vegetation on the beach profile. To develop a numerical tool capable of reproducing the morphological evolution of the beach profiles tested, the CSHORE model was calibrated and validated for the laboratory data finding good correlation.

Managing hardwood-softwood mixtures for future forests in eastern North America: Assessing suitability to projected climate change

Despite growing interest in management strategies for climate change adaptation, there are few methods for assessing the ability of stands to endure or adapt to projected future climates. We developed a means for assigning climate “Compatibility” and “Adaptability” scores to stands for assessing the suitability of tree species for projected climate scenarios. We used these scores to determine whether mixed hardwood-softwood stands or “mixedwoods” were better suited to projected future climates than pure hardwood or pure softwood stands. We also examined the quantity of aboveground carbon (C) sequestered in the overstory of these mixtures. In the four different mixedwood types that we examined, we found that Pinus echinata-Quercus mixtures in the Ozark Highlands had greater Compatibility scores than hardwood stands and greater Adaptability scores than pure Pinus echinata stands; however, these mixtures did not store more aboveground overstory C than pure stands. For Pinus strobus-Quercus rubra, Picea-Abies-hardwood, and Tsuga canadensis-hardwood mixtures, scores indicated that there were no advantages or disadvantages related to climate compatibility. Those mixtures generally had greater Adaptability scores than their pure softwood analogs but stored less aboveground overstory C. Despite the many benefits of maintaining mixedwoods, regenerating and/or recruiting the softwood component of these mixtures remains a persistent silvicultural challenge.

Fragmentation and Management of Ethiopian Moist Evergreen Forest Drive Compositional Shifts of Insect Communities Visiting Wild Arabica Coffee Flowers

Coffea arabica is an indigenous understorey shrub of the moist evergreen Afromontane forest of SW Ethiopia. Coffee cultivation here occurs under different forest management intensities, ranging from almost no intervention in the ‘forest coffee’ system to far-reaching interventions that include the removal of competing shrubs and selective thinning of the upper canopy in the ‘semi-forest coffee’ system. We investigated whether increasing forest management intensity and fragmentation result in impacts upon potential coffee pollination services through examining shifts in insect communities that visit coffee flowers. Overall, we netted 2,976 insect individuals on C. arabica flowers, belonging to sixteen taxonomic groups, comprising 10 insect orders. Taxonomic richness of the flower-visiting insects significantly decreased and pollinator community changed with increasing forest management intensity and fragmentation. The relative abundance of honey bees significantly increased with increasing forest management intensity and fragmentation, likely resulting from the introduction of bee hives in the most intensively managed forests. The impoverishment of the insect communities through increased forest management intensity and fragmentation potentially decreases the resilience of the coffee production system as pollination increasingly relies on honey bees alone. This may negatively affect coffee productivity in the long term as global pollination services by managed honey bees are expected to decline under current climate change scenarios. Coffee agroforestry management practices should urgently integrate pollinator conservation measures.

Linking agricultural adaptation strategies, food security and vulnerability: evidence from West Africa

Adaptation strategies to reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and seasonality are needed given the frequency of extreme weather events predicted to increase during the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa. We explored the linkages between selected agricultural adaptation strategies (crop diversity, soil and water conservation, trees on farm, small ruminants, improved crop varieties, fertilizers), food security, farm household characteristics and farm productivity in three contrasting agro-ecological sites in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana and Senegal). Differences in land area per capita and land productivity largely explained the variation in food security across sites. Based on land size and market orientation, four household types were distinguished (subsistence, diversified, extensive, intensified), with contrasting levels of food security and agricultural adaptation strategies. Income increased steadily with land size, and both income and land productivity increased with degree of market orientation. The adoption of agricultural adaptation strategies was widespread, although the intensity of practice varied across household types. Adaptation strategies improve the food security status of some households, but not all. Some strategies had a significant positive impact on land productivity, while others reduced vulnerability resulting in a more stable cash flow throughout the year. Our results show that for different household types, different adaptation strategies may be ‘climate-smart’. The typology developed in this study gives a good entry point to analyse which practices should be targeted to which type of smallholder farmers, and quantifies the effect of adaptation options on household food security. Subsequently, it will be crucial to empower farmers to access, test and modify these adaptation options, if they were to achieve higher levels of food security.

Crop production under different rainfall and management conditions in agroforestry parkland systems in Burkina Faso: Observations and simulation with WaNuLCAS model

Traditional agroforestry parkland systems in Burkina Faso are under threat due to human pressure and climate variability and change, requiring a better understanding for planning of adaptation. Field experiments were conducted in three climatic zones to assess Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench (Sorghum) biomass, grain yield and harvest index in parklands under different rainfall pattern and compared to simulations of sorghum biomass and grain yield with the Water, Nutrient and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems (WaNuLCAS) model for calibration and parametrisation. For planning adaptation, the model was then used to evaluate the effects of different management options under current and future climates on sorghum biomass and grain yield. Management options studied included tree densities, tree leaf pruning, mulching and changes in tree root patterns affecting hydraulic redistribution. The results revealed that sorghum biomass and grain yield was more negatively affected by Parkia biglobosa (Jacq.) Benth. (néré) compared to Vitellaria paradoxa C. F Gaertn (karité) and Adansonia digitata L. (baobab), the three main tree species of the agroforestry parkland system. Sorghum biomass and grain yield in different influence zones (sub-canopy, outside edge of canopy, open field) was affected by the amount of precipitation but also by tree canopy density, the latter depending itself on the ecological zone. The harvest index (grain as part of total biomass) was highest under the tree canopy and in the zone furthest from the tree, an effect that according to the model reflects relative absence of stress factors in the later part of the growing season. While simulating the effects of different management options under current and future climates still requires further empirical corroboration and model improvement, the options of tree canopy pruning to reduce shading while maintaining tree root functions probably is key to parkland adaptation to a changing climate.

Management of carob tree orchards in Mediterranean ecosystems: strategies for a carbon economy implementation

This paper offers a different framework for managing Mediterranean drought carob-tree orchard ecosystems. Two dry-farming systems were compared during two consecutive years: pure productive orchards and mixed orchards in a total of 360 mature trees distributed by 18 plots with areas of 0.55 and 0.30 ha per plot, respectively. Carob, fig, almond and olive trees compose mixed orchards. Trees of the mixed orchards were more productive than those of pure orchards. The main problem of both systems was the large variability and the low fruit production due to non-bearing trees, inducing unfavorable economic returns. Yield varied between 7.7 and 28.5 kg tree(-1) respectively in pure and mixed orchards. In this paper we propose to use carbon sequestration calculations as an added benefit to farmers. A carbon stocking model estimation was established, based on trunk diameters of different trees. We depicted two management scenarios based on fruits production and carbon sequestration incomes: a low value scenario, using mean fruit production, and a high valuable scenario based on the hypothesis that all trees reached its potential maximum. Since under dry-farming systems fruit production irregularity is still a pendent problem, mixed orchards may offer a potential higher revenue, while maintaining higher crop diversification and whole biodiversity. C sequestration benefit, as here we purpose, may represent 125-300 % of income, respectively under low or high valuable scenario. Thus, CO2 equivalent is a novel ecological economic incentive that may potentiate a new income for farmers while assuring carob ecosystem services.

Are we adapting to climate change? A catchment-based adaptation assessment tool for freshwater ecosystems

Freshwater ecosystems in many parts of the world have been severely affected by past management practices that have altered the volume, timing and quality of water flows and caused a decline in their ecological health. Some of these systems are also experiencing the negative impacts of climate change. Adaptation to climate change and the continual need to address existing ecological damage poses ongoing challenges for freshwater managers. In this paper we propose and discuss a Catchment Assessment Framework (CAF) that is used to evaluate existing and potential freshwater management actions, such as riparian revegetation and habitat connectivity, for their adaptation potential. The CAF was developed as a tool for prioritizing low risk climate change adaptation options in Australian catchment management. The CAF enables catchment managers and technical experts to assess management actions against seven inter-related criteria to provide a holistic assessment: relevance to the catchment; climate change adaptation potential, including potential for maladaptation and benefit under different climate scenarios; ecosystem service benefits; compatibility with other actions; implementation constraints; socio-economic consequences; and a risk assessment. It was developed and applied by assessing nine management options with stakeholders in three catchments within the Murray-Darling Basin in south-eastern Australia. We found that while management options are undertaken as a response to existing degradation, they can be used as building blocks for a climate change adaptation strategy that considers a range of different but complementary measures to better manage climate-related risk. The CAF enables practitioners to assess the advantages of a range of adaptation options and to subject them to their wider decision making and management planning.

Climate change influences on pollinator, forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient

Climate impact models are often implemented at horizontal resolutions (“scales”) too coarse to be readily applied in local impact assessments. However, recent advancements in fine-scale modeling are allowing the creation of impact models that can be applied to landscape-scale adaptation planning. Here, we illustrate the use of fine-scale impact models for landscape-scale adaptation planning of pollination services for six sites in Central America. The strategies include the identification of (1) potential reservoir areas that may retain bee diversity and serve as a source of recolonization after climate shocks such as droughts; and (2) potential restoration areas, where improving forest cover is likely to lead to increases in pollinator services both in the present and in the future. Coarse-scale (>1-km horizontal resolution) climatic controls on pollinator diversity and forest cover determine the general location of these areas in our six landscapes. Fine-scale (<100-m horizontal resolution) variation in climatic water deficit provides an index of forest health which can help identify intervention strategies within these zones. All sites have significant areas in which protecting or restoring forest cover is likely to enhance pollination services. The gradient in rainfall change across the study sites dictates choice of adaptation strategies.