We investigated the coping strategies of rural communities in three countries in Africa to climate hazards. Forest ecosystems deliver food and shelter during extreme events (droughts and floods) and are thus key assets for increasing the resilience of poor communities. In some villages, forests and their NTFP serve as supplementary income during periods of climate stress at the community-level. These coping strategies can form a basis for dealing with future climate changes and can contribute to the development of planned adaptation strategies for anticipated changes. We identified factors that promote or prevent the use of sustainable coping strategies related to forest ecosystems.
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Legume tree-based farming systems sit at a crucial nexus of agroecological sustainability. Their capacity to support microbial N2 fixation can increase soil nitrogen (N) availability and therefore improve soil fertility, crop yields, and support long-term stewardship of natural resources. However, increasing N availability oftentimes catalyzes the release of N into the surrounding environment, in particular nitrous oxide (N2O) — a potent greenhouse gas. We summarize current knowledge on the agroecological footprint of legume-based agroforestry and provide a first appraisal of whether the technology represents a pathway toward sustainable development or an environmental hazard.
Benefits humans rely on from the ocean – marine ecosystem services – are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures. Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives – such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes – are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change.
A healthy natural coastal ecosystem can function as one of the components in reducing potential risk of coastal disasters. The impacts of tsunamis, storm surges and coastal erosions can be reduced at a certain limit by the existence of coastal forest and dunes. In Indonesia, tsunami occurs once twice a year in average. It means, tsunami hit quiet frequently even though the return period in a specific location mostly is several tens to hundred years. To reduce potential impacts of tsunamis in coastal area, construction and rehabilitation of coastal forest is one of the main efforts. The existence of a healthy coastal forest not only provides a suitable protection for high frequency but relatively minor to medium scale tsunamis, but also promotes economic activity based on eco-tourism that will ensure the sustainability of the coastal forest maintenance in the later phase. This paper aims to describe milestones of tsunami mitigation by using greenbelt in Indonesia. Conception, tsunami hazards assessment, challenges and lessons learnt in applying tsunami mitigation by using greenbelt are described so the initiative can be replicated in other tsunami prone areas.
Resource management regulations, such as those associated with the establishment of protected areas, can increase vulnerability and compromise individual and collective agency for adaptation. In this article, we comparatively analyse how four rural communities located within two biosphere reserves in Mexico and Bolivia experience vulnerability and adaptation to global change. We use focus groups, interviews and scoring exercises to analyse the influence of reserve management practices on locally perceived changes and stresses on livelihoods, and to discuss communities’ coping and adaptation strategies. We show that both reserves are perceived as a source of stress but somewhat differently. In Mexico, communities feel vulnerable to the reserve’s regulations but less to climatic and economic stresses, whereas in Bolivia communities perceive the insufficient enforcement of the reserve’s rules as the most relevant stress to their livelihoods. Most of household-based and collective adaptations to environmental change have been adopted without the support of the biosphere reserves. We discuss how and why the biosphere reserves contribute to local vulnerability and why their role in enhancing local adaptation is limited.
Massive deforestation induced by unplanned urbanization in the hilly watersheds of Brahmaputra basin, India, has led to ecological imbalance and is gradually transforming this basin into a multi-hazard zone. Removal of green cover is also becoming a matter of global concern, as it can accelerate the adverse impacts of climate change. People coming in search of work generally reside in the hills, as they cannot afford the high cost of land in plains. This has led to deforestation of the hilly area and has resulted in increased surface erosion from the upper catchments. Though sediment and water yield from these degraded watersheds could have been minimized by implementing ecologically sustainable management practices (EMPs), such as grass land, forest land and detention pond, poor economic conditions of the people stands in the way of field implementation. On the other hand, major industries, which can be held responsible for emission of greenhouse gases, can be asked to finance greenery development in these hilly watersheds through implementation of selected EMPs to earn carbon credit for them. To convert this concept into reality, the EMP combination must be selected in such a way that it restricts sediment and water yield from the watershed within the permissible limit and maximizes its carbon sequestration capacity at minimum possible cost. Such optimal planning is a prerequisite for preparing an acceptable logical agreement between Government and private companies. Keeping this in mind, an optimization model was developed and applied to a micro watershed of Guwahati to explore its applicability in actual field. The model developed in this study provides most logical carbon credit negotiation, subject to the availability of reliable value of CO2 sequestration for different EMPs.
Biodiversity hotspots are among some of the habitats most threatened by climate change, and the Brazilian Atlantic forest is no exception. Only 11.6 % of the natural vegetation cover remains in an intensely fragmented state, which results in high vulnerability of this biome to climate change. Since >60 % of the Brazilian people live within the Atlantic forest domain, societies both in rural and urban areas are also highly vulnerable to climate change. This review examines the vulnerabilities of biodiversity and society in the Atlantic forest to climate change, as well as impacts of land use and climate change, particularly on recent biological evidence of strong synergies and feedback between them. We then discuss the crucial role ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change might play in increasing the resilience of local society to future climate scenarios and provide some ongoing examples of good adaptive practices, especially related to ecosystem restoration and conservation incentive schemes such as payment for ecosystem services. Finally, we list a set of arguments about why we trust that the Atlantic forest can turn from a ‘‘shrinking biodiversity hotspot’’ to a climate adaptation ‘‘hope spot’’ whereby society’s vulnerability to climate change is reduced by protecting and restoring nature and improving human life standards.
Societal adaptation to climate change requires measures that simultaneously reduce poverty, protect or restore biodiversity and ecosystem services, and remove atmospheric greenhouse gases. Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change is the type of adaptation that aims to combine these outcomes and is particularly relevant to developing nations that safeguard most of the planetary biodiversity and healthy ecosystems. Although conceptually new, ecosystem-based adaptation is fastly gaining traction both as a research arena and as an integrated policy instrument. This paper aims to revisit this concept and to discuss the science and policy challenges faced by it. It argues that ecosystem-based adaptation is a policy mix that promotes adaptive transition, which is a step towards sustainability transitions. It faces two major challenges in promoting transitions towards adaptation and sustainability. First, research on ecosystem-based adaptation mostly takes place within the socio-ecological systems framework, which is often carried out in isolation from socio-technical systems research. It is widely recognized that both types of research should be integrated, for the benefit of science and policy-making, and the paper discusses the potential of ecosystem-based adaptation in providing such bridge. Second, there is a divide between global and local research and policy, while at local level this divide is related to the setting (e.g., coastal, urban, rural). The resulting mosaic of information lacks integration, which hinders scalability of actions and policies. Finally, I examine the opportunity for ecological and conservation scientists to interact with social, economic and political scientists on ecosystem-based adaptation research, and discuss how timely this opportunity is for Brazil.
The brief look at NBSs from the viewpoint of flood risk management suggests that the relatively new concept seems to be worthwhile for further consideration in both science and practice. Not at least as the need for a close cooperation between various scientific disciplines and multiple sectoral and local stakeholders seems to open up some room for joint innovation.
The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that savanna ecosystems supply, such as food and livestock production, fuel wood, and climate regulation. Flows of these services are strongly influenced by climate, land use and their interactions. Savannas cover c. 20% of the Earth’s land surface and changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly influence local people’s living conditions, as well as the climate system and global biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we use a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM, to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure and distribution of West African savannas under current and anticipated future environmental conditions. We parameterized the model for West African savannas and extended it by including sub-models to simulate fire management, grazing, and wood cutting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift toward more wood dominated vegetation due to CO2 fertilization effects, increased water use efficiency and decreased fire activity. However, land use activities could maintain desired vegetation states that ensure fluxes of important ecosystem services, even under anticipated future conditions. Ecosystem management can mitigate climate change impacts on vegetation and delay or avoid undesired vegetation shifts. The results highlight the effects of land use on the future distribution and dynamics of savannas. The identification of management strategies is essential to maintain important ecosystem services under future conditions in savannas worldwide
The dynamic coastline of Soc Trang Province in the Mekong Delta of Viet Nam is in most parts protected from erosion, storms and flooding by a narrow belt of mangroves. However, the unsustainable use of natural resources and development in the coastal zone is threatening the protection function of this forest belt. This situation is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, particularly by the increased intensity and frequency of storms, floods and by rising sea levels. Based on analysis of past experience of mangrove planting and historical changes in mangrove cover, an integrated and site-specific approach to adaptation to climate change has been put in place, which comprises mangrove planting and rehabilitation with emphasis on resilience to climate change, and participatory involvement of local communities in effective mangrove management and protection through co-management. To address uncertainties associated with the impacts of climate change, testing of new mangrove planting techniques has started. This includes mimicking successful natural regeneration for small-scale planting in sites with high wave energy and transformation of existing even-aged plantations into more diverse forests—both in terms of structure and species composition. The pre-requisite for mangrove rehabilitation in erosion sites has successfully been put in place: breakwaters made from bamboo have reduced erosion and stimulated sedimentation. The design and construction of the wave-breaking structures, which was based on a numerical model which simulates hydrodynamics and shoreline development, ensures that downdrift erosion can be avoided as far as possible. A comprehensive monitoring program has been established and initial results provide evidence for the effectiveness of the bamboo breakwaters. Early experience shows that co-management is an effective way of maintaining and enhancing the protection function of the mangrove forest belt and at the same time providing livelihood for local communities. Payment for ecosystem services contributes to sustainability of co-management as well as livelihood improvement.
The failure of conventional approaches to achieve equitable and sustainable water management has prompted a new way of perceiving and acting with water. This is creating a ‘new water paradigm’ that emphasizes broader stakeholder involvement; integration of sectors, issues and disciplines; attention to the human dimensions of management; and wider recognition of the economic, ecological and cultural values of water. This article reviews three approaches arising within the new water paradigm: integrated water resources management; ecosystem-based approaches; and adaptive management. The article concludes that the strengths of each approach address different moral and ecological challenges. Combining these strengths, while minimizing tensions, may contribute to more effective water management in the Anthropocene.
The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.
Shorelines at the interface of marine, estuarine and terrestrial biomes are among the most degraded and threatened habitats in the coastal zone because of their sensitivity to sea level rise, storms and increased human utilization. Previous efforts to protect shorelines have largely involved constructing bulkheads and seawalls which can detrimentally affect nearshore habitats. Recently, efforts have shifted towards ‘‘living shoreline’’ approaches that include biogenic breakwater reefs. Our study experimentally tested the efficacy of breakwater reefs constructed of oyster shell for protecting eroding coastal shorelines and their effect on nearshore fish and shellfish communities. Along two different stretches of eroding shoreline, we created replicated pairs of subtidal breakwater reefs and established unaltered reference areas as controls. At both sites we measured shoreline and bathymetric change and quantified oyster recruitment, fish and mobile macroinvertebrate abundances. Breakwater reef treatments mitigated shoreline retreat by more than 40% at one site, but overall vegetation retreat and erosion rates were high across all treatments and at both sites. Oyster settlement and subsequent survival were observed at both sites, with mean adult densities reaching more than eighty oysters m22 at one site. We found the corridor between intertidal marsh and oyster reef breakwaters supported higher abundances and different communities of fishes than control plots without oyster reef habitat. Among the fishes and mobile invertebrates that appeared to be strongly enhanced were several economically-important species. Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) were the most clearly enhanced (+297%) by the presence of breakwater reefs, while red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) (+108%), spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) (+88%) and flounder (Paralichthys sp.) (+79%) also benefited. Although the vertical relief of the breakwater reefs was reduced over the course of our study and this compromised the shoreline protection capacity, the observed habitat value demonstrates ecological justification for future, more robust shoreline protection projects.
Whether or not exacerbated by climate change, flood risks are becoming more frequent in the capital city of Nouakchott in Mauritania. Flooding in Nouakchott is due to a combination of both natural factors and human activities. The extreme fragility of the barrier beach that protects the city from the sea, the accelerated exploitation and inadequate infrastructure built along the coast have made this barrier beach highly vulnerable to wave action, exposing the city to a high risk of flooding. Flooding is further exacerbated by rising groundwater levels in several neighborhoods of the city. Cartographic analysis of flood risk indicated that socio-economic impacts associated with floods could be high. In the case of sea water intrusion, up to 30 % of the city could be potentially submerged. This would directly affect nearly 300,000 people and entail high risks of casualties. Associated economic losses due to flooding could be as high as USD 7 billion (Senhoury, Ame´nagements portuaires et urbanisation accelere´e des coˆtes basses sableuses d’Afrique de l’Ouest dans un contexte de pejoration climatique, cas du littoral de Nouakchott (Mauritanie). Thesis state, University of Dakar, April 29, 2014, 157 pp, 2014). The following measures based on nature-based approaches are recommended to tackle flood risks in Nouakchott: • Restore and consolidate the barrier beach through reforestation of degraded areas; • Put in place an appropriate drainage system for rain and marine waters and a sewage sanitation system; • Optimize a solution to safeguard the harbor of Nouakchott; and • Transform wetlands created by the permanent flooding of low-lying areas in the city into urban protected areas.
Operational approaches have been more and more widely developed and used for providing marine data and information services for different socio-economic sectors of the Blue Growth and to advance knowledge about the marine environment. The objective of operational oceanographic research is to develop and improve the efficiency, timeliness, robustness and product quality of this approach. This white paper aims to address key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European Ocean Observations, Modelling and Forecasting Technology, Coastal Operational Oceanography and Operational Ecology. The areas “European Ocean Observations” and “Modelling and Forecasting Technology” focus on the further advancement of the basic instruments and capacities for European operational oceanography, while “Coastal Operational Oceanography” and “Operational Ecology” aim at developing new operational approaches for the corresponding knowledge areas.
Background: Salt marshes lie between many human communities and the coast and have been presumed to protect these communities from coastal hazards by providing important ecosystem services. However, previous characterizations of these ecosystem services have typically been based on a small number of historical studies, and the consistency and extent to which marshes provide these services has not been investigated. Here, we review the current evidence for the specific processes of wave attenuation, shoreline stabilization and floodwater attenuation to determine if and under what conditions salt marshes offer these coastal protection services. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted a thorough search and synthesis of the literature with reference to these processes. Seventy-five publications met our selection criteria, and we conducted meta-analyses for publications with sufficient data available for quantitative analysis. We found that combined across all studies (n = 7), salt marsh vegetation had a significant positive effect on wave attenuation as measured by reductions in wave height per unit distance across marsh vegetation. Salt marsh vegetation also had a significant positive effect on shoreline stabilization as measured by accretion, lateral erosion reduction, and marsh surface elevation change (n = 30). Salt marsh characteristics that were positively correlated to both wave attenuation and shoreline stabilization were vegetation density, biomass production, and marsh size. Although we could not find studies quantitatively evaluating floodwater attenuation within salt marshes, there are several studies noting the negative effects of wetland alteration on water quantity regulation within coastal areas.
Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that salt marshes have value for coastal hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation. Because we do not yet fully understand the magnitude of this value, we propose that decision makers employ natural systems to maximize the benefits and ecosystem services provided by salt marshes and exercise caution when making decisions that erode these services.
The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting the economic effectiveness of DRR, however, key limitations were identified, including a lack of: sensitivity analyses, meta-analyses which critique the literature, consideration of climate change, evaluation of the duration of benefits, broader consideration of the process of vulnerability, and potential disbenefits of DRR measures. The studies demonstrate the importance of context for each BCR result. Recommendations are made regarding minimum criteria to consider when conducting DRR CBAs.
This paper systematically reviews and synthesizes peer-reviewed, English-language scientific publications (n=212) to identify relevant research about how Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) is integrated with coastal planning. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) methodology is applied in this study. Attention was given to studies concerning human-environment interactions as opposed to physical or biological climate change issues alone because the coastal planning and EBA approach addresses the management of human actions in nature. The literature references include the issue of climate change (77%); however, limited evidence of EBA in coastal areas are reported (18%), and it is evident that the issues have become relevant in the scientific literature published in recent years. Broad texts demonstrate that SLR is one of the major long-term impacts (68%), and all of these papers recognize the most affected ecosystems in the tropics would be mangroves. EBA is an emerging option that can offset anticipated ecosystem losses and improve coastal planning to cope with SLR because it provides benefits beyond climate change stressors. There is a need to synthesize a road map for incorporation of mangrove regulations into local planning instruments and for building capacity for their implementation. Application of PRISMA in marine science will enhance future reviews, facilitate the systematic search and adequately document any theme, and also be useful in determining research gaps or information needs.
Emissions from deforestation are significant and account for more than 18% of global annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With the Bali Action Plan categorically placing reduced emissions from degradation and deforestation (REDD) activities on the agenda of future climate change negotiations, there is now a strong possibility that policy approaches and incentives relating to enhancement of carbon stocks in low biomass forests will be successfully negotiated and accepted as a legitimate greenhouse gas mitigation option in the upcoming post-2012 climate change regime. Using the institutional mechanisms provided by community-based forest management (CBFM), 833.8 Tg carbon can be sequestered by enhancement of forest carbon stocks in low biomass Indian forests. By protection refugia, restoring biodiversity, providing connectivity, mimicking nature in plantations and controlling man-made fires, CBFM as practiced in India can be an effective way of managing forests during times of climate change. Appropriately designed CBFM policy can provide means to sustain and strengthen community livelihoods and at the same time avoid deforestation, restore forest cover and density, provide carbon mitigation and create rural assets. Channeling carbon investment funds into CBFM projects can make both development and conservation economically viable and attractive for the local communities to maintain biodiversity and integrity of nature. However, before actual funding under the Clean Development Mechanism and other international C investment funds is available, policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to REDD need to be negotiated and agreed upon by the participating nations to UNFCCC.
Coastal lowlands and estuaries are subjected to increasing flood risks during storm surges due to global and regional changes. Tidal wetlands are increasingly valued as effective natural buffers for storm surges by dissipating wave energy and providing flood water storage. While previous studies focused on flood wave attenuation within and behind wetlands, this study focuses on the effects of estuarine wetland properties on the attenuation of a storm tide that propagates along the length of an estuary. Wetland properties including elevation, surface area, and location within the estuary were investigated using a numerical model of the Scheldt estuary (Belgium, SW Netherlands). For a spring tide lower wetland elevations result in more attenuation of high water levels along the estuary, while for a higher storm tide higher elevations provide more attenuation compared to lower wetland elevations. For spring and storm tide a larger wetland surface area results in a better attenuation along the estuary up to a threshold wetland size for which larger wetlands do not further contribute to more attenuation. Finally a wetland of the same size and elevation, but located more upstream in the estuary, can store a larger proportion of the local flood volume and therefore has a larger attenuating effect on upstream high water levels. With this paper we aim to contribute towards a better understanding and wider implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation to increasing estuarine flood risks associated with storms.
Coastal ecosystems, particularly intertidal wetlands and reefs (coral and shellfish), can play a critical role in reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to rising seas and coastal hazards, through their multiple roles in wave attenuation, sediment capture, vertical accretion, erosion reduction and the mitigation of storm surge and debris movement. There is growing understanding of the array of factors that affect the strength or efficacy of these ecosystem services in different locations, as well as management interventions which may restore or enhance such values. Improved understanding and application of such knowledge will form a critical part of coastal adaptation planning, likely reducing the need for expensive engineering options in some locations, and providing a complementary tool in hybrid engineering design. Irrespective of future climate change, coastal hazards already impact countless communities and the appropriate use of ecosystem-based adaptation strategies offers a valuable and effective tool for present-day management. Maintaining and enhancing coastal systems will also support the continued provision of other coastal services, including the provision of food and maintenance of coastal resource dependent livelihoods.
As ecosystem-based adaptation to global change is gaining ground, strategies to protect coastal and estuarine areas from increasing flood hazards are starting to consist of natural tidal wetland conservation and restoration in addition to conventional coastal defense structures. In this study, the capacity of tidal wetlands to locally attenuate peak water levels during storm tides is analyzed using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (TELEMAC-2D) for a 3000 ha intertidal marsh (SW Netherlands). Model results indicate that peak water level reduction largely varies between individual flooding events and between different locations in the marsh. Model scenarios with variable dike positions show that attenuation rates can be minimized by blockage and set up of water levels against dikes or other structures confining the marsh size. This blockage only affects peak water level attenuation across wetlands if the duration of the flood wave is long compared to the marsh size. A minimum marsh width of 6 to 10 km is required to completely avoid blockage effects for the storm tidal cases assessed in this study. If blockage does not affect flood wave propagation, variations in attenuation rates between different locations in the marsh and between tides with varying high water levels can be explained with a single relationship based on the ratio between the water volume on the marsh platform and the total water volume on the platform and in the channels. Attenuation starts to occur when this ratio exceeds 0.2-0.4 and increases from there on up to a maximum of 29 cm/km for a ratio of about 0.85. Furthermore, model scenarios with varying marsh channel depth show that marsh scale attenuation rates increase by up to 4 cm/km if the channel elevation is raised by 0.7 m on average. Conversely, marsh scale attenuation rates decrease by up to 2 cm/km for scenarios in which the channels are lowered by 0.9 m on average. The marsh platform elevation has little effect on the maximum attenuation, but it determines which tides are attenuated. In particular, only overmarsh tides that inundate the platform are attenuated, while undermarsh tides that only flood the marsh channels are not attenuated or even amplified. These findings may assist coastal communities and managers in the optimization of the coastal defense function of tidal wetlands in combination with dikes.
A methodology is presented to construct supply curves and cost–supply curves for carbon plantations based on land-use scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE 2). A sensitivity analysis for assessing which factors are most important in shaping these curves is also presented. In the IPCC SRES B2 Scenario, the carbon sequestration potential on abandoned agricultural land increases from 60 MtC/year in 2010 to 2,700 MtC/year in 2100 for prices up to 1,000 $/tC, assuming harvest when the mean annual increment decreases and assuming no environmental, economical or political barriers in the implementation-phase. Taking these barriers into consideration would reduce the potential by at least 60%. On the other hand, the potential will increase 55 to 75% if plantations on harvested timberland are considered. Taking into account land and establishment costs, the largest part of the potential up to 2025 can be supplied below 100 $/tC (In this article all dollar values are in US dollars of 1995, unless indicated otherwise.). Beyond 2050, more than 50% of the costs come to over 200 $/tC. Compared to other mitigation options, this is relative cheap. So a large part of the potential will likely be used in an overall mitigation strategy. However, since huge emission reductions are probably needed, the relative contribution of plantations will be low (around 3%). The largest source of uncertainty with respect to both potentials and costs is the growth rate of plantations compared to the natural vegetation.