Role of nature-based solutions in mitigating climate change

Projects that manage, protect and restore ecosystems are widely viewed critical to mitigating climate change. In this project we modelled the potential of nature-based solutions on land to help to reduce peak warming. Our analysis shows that if scaled up the maximum extent possible, NbS can reduce global warming by 0.1°C if warming peaks mid-century at 1.5°C since pre-industrial times. However, if we overshoot the 1. 5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and warming peaks around 2075 at 2°C, there would be more time for the benefits of NbS to accrue and, if scaled up to the maximum extent possible, they could reduce peak warming by 0.3°C. We argue that although this contribution is crucial, the total potential of NbS is much smaller than what can be achieved through the decarbonisation of the global economy.