How can we manage uncertainties in habitat greenhouse gas emissions?

Estimating emissions and developing mitigation pathways for environmental greenhouse gases presents additional challenges beyond those associated with tracking fossil carbon dioxide (CO2). Firstly, environmental emissions are uncertain and variable in time and space, reflecting the complicated interactions between ecological communities and their physical environment that give rise to emissions. Secondly, environmental greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by non-CO2 gases, chiefly methane and nitrous oxide, which show in different warming dynamics over time that need to be taken into consideration to determine whether actions achieve a genuine climate across all time-scales.

This project, through The Agile Initiative at the Oxford Martin School, explores these concerns with a focus around biogenic methane emissions. Working with The Wildlife Trusts, we are investigating how recent updates to peatland emission factors would change their estimated greenhouse gas emissions emissions, and attempting to confirm that restoration could help contribute to their ‘net-zero’ ambition, and provide a long-term climate benefit. With the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Northern Ireland) we are exploring how projected methane emissions vary with different evaluation methods, to explore some of the policy implications for prioritising different emission reductions.