The Cerrado is the second largest biome in Latin America and the most biodiverse savanna in the world. Yet it has lost half its native vegetation to agriculture – and conversion is accelerating. Urgent action is needed to balance production with protection, in a way that delivers gains for climate, nature and people.
Major Habitat Type: Savanna
Savanna
Nature-based solutions (NbS) have received increased interest as cost-effective contributors to addressing societal challenges, with ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) being the specific approach for reducing disaster risk under the NbS umbrella. Ecosystem services (ES) provided by Eco-DRR measures are known to contribute to reducing all three components of disaster risk. Yet, Eco-DRR evaluation falls short of recognising this, and this hampers its strategic placement and effective use. This paper addresses the challenge of evaluating the impact of Eco-DRR measures on reducing hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The methodological approach for Eco-DRR evaluation is developed for agroforestry as an example of ecosystem-based measure for flood risk reduction. The literature review on ES provided by cropland versus agroforestry provided the basis to elaborate on how the quantitative evaluation of such a measure for flood risk reduction could be realised in a next step. An additional literature review served to create a look-up table on the effects of agroforestry on hydrological processes in comparison to cropland. This can serve as input for re-running the hydrological model and comparing the hazard before and after the agroforestry implementation. The paper also captures the effects of agroforestry implementation on social and ecological vulnerability through changes in ES provision. Changes in ES provision resulting from the implementation of an agroforestry measure on cropland were related to social and ecological vulnerability using a deductive approach. The concept for comprehensive evaluation developed in this paper provides the groundwork for evaluating the risk reduction potential of Eco-DRR with reference to a tailored risk assessment.
Nature-based solutions (NbS) have received increased interest as cost-effective contributors to addressing societal challenges, with ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) being the specific approach for reducing disaster risk under the NbS umbrella. Ecosystem services (ES) provided by Eco-DRR measures are known to contribute to reducing all three components of disaster risk. Yet, Eco-DRR evaluation falls short of recognising this, and this hampers its strategic placement and effective use. This paper addresses the challenge of evaluating the impact of Eco-DRR measures on reducing hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The methodological approach for Eco-DRR evaluation is developed for agroforestry as an example of ecosystem-based measure for flood risk reduction. The literature review on ES provided by cropland versus agroforestry provided the basis to elaborate on how the quantitative evaluation of such a measure for flood risk reduction could be realised in a next step. An additional literature review served to create a look-up table on the effects of agroforestry on hydrological processes in comparison to cropland. This can serve as input for re-running the hydrological model and comparing the hazard before and after the agroforestry implementation. The paper also captures the effects of agroforestry implementation on social and ecological vulnerability through changes in ES provision. Changes in ES provision resulting from the implementation of an agroforestry measure on cropland were related to social and ecological vulnerability using a deductive approach. The concept for comprehensive evaluation developed in this paper provides the groundwork for evaluating the risk reduction potential of Eco-DRR with reference to a tailored risk assessment.
The Cerrado biome in Brazil is the most biodiverse savannah in the world1 and has a key role in stabilizing both the local and the global climate, storing carbon and providing fresh water to the country2. Yet, the Cerrado has little protection and is being converted for agriculture at an alarming rate. Recently released official data reveal that, in 2022, deforestation in the biome rose for the third consecutive year3. The area cleared was 25% higher than the previous year, reaching 10,689 km² (ref. 3), rivalling the rates of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (12,479 km²), despite the Cerrado being only half the size3. Almost three-quarters of that conversion took place in the MATOPIBA agricultural frontier, where nearly 25% of Cerrado’s soybean harvest is planted4. The current high rates of conversion even jeopardize the future of agricultural production in the Cerrado. The loss of the Cerrado has contributed to extreme climate events over the past decade5, which increased surface-sensible heat flux, reduced evapotranspiration and crop yields and threatened the feasibility of multi-cropping systems6, as well as exacerbated land concentration and farmers’ indebtedness.
Wildlife conservation in Africa has been dominated by protected areas (PAs) that largely excluded the interests of local communities. While this “fortress conservation” has succeeded in securing natural habitat and wildlife populations, it has come at a cost to local communities who forego access to natural resources on which their livelihoods depend and who obtain few direct benefits from the designated PAs. Concomitantly, climate change poses formidable challenges that require urgent attention to meet global climate goals. Combining finance mechanisms primarily intended for climate outcomes with community-based conservation models presents opportunities to integrate nature conservation and climate change mitigation and adaptation while providing direct income to local communities. In this chapter, we present an example of a results-based system of payments for ecosystem services – the purchase of verified emission reductions for use as carbon offsets. We outline the key steps for planning and implementing the REDD+ project of Makame Wildlife Management Area, and emphasize the monitoring of key parameters associated with climate, community and wildlife benefits. Our case study depicts an innovative, nature-based solution to climate change, wildlife conservation, and rural livelihoods for an African savannah rangeland where conventional approaches are insufficient to meet the costs of conservation.
The climate and biodiversity crises are fundamentally connected and more integrated approaches are needed to address them effectively. To directly tackle the interconnected factors behind them, actions which
capitalize on the contributions of nature, commonly known as Naturebased Solutions (NbS), can play a more central role. The one-year delay in the 2020 Conferences of Parties to the UNFCCC and the CBD caused by the COVID-19 crisis provides a unique opportunity to bring new scientific advances to inform and strengthen the links between both international agendas and their national implementation. To facilitate the alignment and better understand the potential synergies between these agendas, there is a need to assess the role that achieving biodiversity conservation targets can play in efforts to mitigate climate change. This report presents the first results of ongoing research aiming to inform progress by making explicit and quantifying the role that achieving biodiversity conservation targets can play in securing the emissions reductions needed to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. This report, the first output of this effort, looks at the carbon stocks associated with areas identified as possible priorities to meet proposed global biodiversity conservation targets.
The analysis presented here identifies the regions where global action will deliver the most to achieve post-2020 biodiversity conservation goals and mitigate climate change. It shows that the strategic choice of areas to be managed for conservation, increasing such areas to 30% of land globally,
could safeguard more than 500 gigatons of carbon. When prioritizing
areas for conservation management, taking account of biodiversity and
carbon together can secure 95% of the biodiversity benefits and nearly
80% of the carbon stock that could be obtained by prioritizing based on
either value alone. [Continued]
Extensive ecosystem restoration is increasingly seen as being central to conserving biodiversity1 and stabilizing the climate of the Earth2. Although ambitious national and global targets have been set, global priority areas that account for spatial variation in benefits and costs have yet to be identified. Here we develop and apply a multicriteria optimization approach that identifies priority areas for restoration across all terrestrial biomes, and estimates their benefits and costs. We find that restoring 15% of converted lands in priority areas could avoid 60% of expected extinctions while sequestering 299 gigatonnes of CO2—30% of the total CO2 increase in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution. The inclusion of several biomes is key to achieving multiple benefits. Cost effectiveness can increase up to 13-fold when spatial allocation is optimized using our multicriteria approach, which highlights the importance of spatial planning. Our results confirm the vast potential contributions of restoration to addressing global challenges, while underscoring the necessity of pursuing these goals synergistically.
Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement’s goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems—to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO2e yr−1 at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO2e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.
The role of forests in climate change mitigation is well documented. However, little is known about the importance of forests to adaptation in response to climate change, and its integration with mitigation options to cushion social and biophysical systems from the impacts of climate change. This paper examines pathways for harmonizing forest-related climate change adaptation and mitigation in francophone Africa covering Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar and Cameroon. Qualitative and quantitative research approaches were employed in this study. It was found that wood energy savings, afforestation, reforestation, promotion of community forests, agro-silvipastoral schemes and urban forestry schemes were the most identified interventions with a potential of climate change adaptation and mitigation outcomes. In this regard, mainstreaming forests into adaptation and mitigation policies in the context of NDCs is critical if the benefits from forests and trees outside forests are to be realized in Francophone Africa.
We investigated the coping strategies of rural communities in three countries in Africa to climate hazards. Forest ecosystems deliver food and shelter during extreme events (droughts and floods) and are thus key assets for increasing the resilience of poor communities. In some villages, forests and their NTFP serve as supplementary income during periods of climate stress at the community-level. These coping strategies can form a basis for dealing with future climate changes and can contribute to the development of planned adaptation strategies for anticipated changes. We identified factors that promote or prevent the use of sustainable coping strategies related to forest ecosystems.
A spatial analysis is presented that aims to synthesize the evidence for climate and social dimensions of the ‘regreening” of the Sahel. Using an independently constructed archival database of donor-funded interventions in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Senegal in response to the persistence of drought in the 1970s and 1980s, the spatial distribution of these interventions is examined in relation to population density and to trends in precipitation and in greenness. Three categories of environmental change are classified: 1) regions at the northern grassland/shrubland edge of the Sahel where NDVI varies interannually with precipitation, 2) densely populated cropland regions of the Sahel where significant trends in precipitation and NDVI decouple at interannual time scales, and 3) regions at the southern savanna edge of the Sahel where NDVI variation is independent of precipitation. Examination of the spatial distribution of environmental change, number of development projects, and population density brings to the fore the second category, covering the cropland areas where population density and regreening are higher than average. While few, regions in this category coincide with emerging hotspots of regreening in northern Burkina Faso and southern central Niger known from case study literature. In examining the impact of efforts to rejuvenate the Sahelian environment and livelihoods in the aftermath of the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s against the backdrop of a varying and uncertain climate, the transition from desertification to regreening discourses is framed in the context of adaptation to climate change.
Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.
Bowalization is a particular form of land degradation and leads to lateral expansion of ferricrete horizons. The process occurs only in tropical regions. In this study, the most adapted and resistant species towards climate change were identified on bowé. The 15 most common bowé species of the subhumid and semi-arid climate zones of Benin were submitted together with significant environmental variables (elevation, current bioclimatic variables, soil types) to three ecological niche modelling programmes (Maxent, Domain and GARP). For future prediction (2050), IPCC4/CIAT and IPCC5/CMIP5 climate data were applied. Asparagus africanus, Andropogon pseudapricus and Combretum nigricans were identified as the most resistant species for ecological restoration of bowé in the semi-arid climate zone and Asparagus africanus, Detarium microcarpumand Lannea microcarpa in the subhumid climate zone. The ‘Pull’ strategies were identified as appropriate for ecological restoration of bowé in Benin.
Climate change and land use/land cover change (LULCC) are associated with local vulnerability, defined as the intrinsic tendency of a system to be negatively affected by an event or phenomenon, but this can be ameliorated by ecosystem conservation. In Mexico, extensive Wildlife Management Units (eWMUs) are environmental policy instruments designed to promote ecosystem conservation and rural development via the sustainable use of wildlife by local populations. However, evidence of the successful reduction of LULCC by eWMUs is contradictory, and there has been no investigation into their potential as an action to promote climate change adaptation. In this study, we focused on the overall patterns of LULCC associated with eWMU throughout the country and examined strengths and weaknesses of eWMUs as policy instruments to address climate change. In particular, we analyzed how differences in areas with eWMUs influence LULCC and assessed how eWMUs could contribute to reducing vulnerability, particularly in double exposure municipalities. We calculated the percentage of eWMUs per municipality from official information and estimated LULCC from vegetation changes between 2002 and 2011. We then used the Kruskal-Wallis test to find statistically significant differences in vegetation changes based on the percentage of eWMUs and performed between-group comparisons using a post hoc Dunn test. Although Mexico has 2456 municipalities, only 37% have eWMUs. Furthermore, 64% of Mexico’s municipalities have lost vegetation cover, whereas only 36% have either gained vegetation or remained stable. In municipalities that recorded changes to the vegetation, those changes were, overall, minimal and involved less than 10% of the total area of those municipalities. In general, municipalities with less than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs experienced higher vegetation losses than those with more than 10% of their total area dedicated to eWMUs. We detected twelve double exposure municipalities, i.e. they are vulnerable to climate change and lost more than 10% of their vegetation. Double exposure municipalities dedicated less than 2% of their total area to eWMUs as well. Our results suggest that incremental increases in the area dedicated to eWMUs may reduce LULCC and protect vegetation, particularly in double exposure municipalities. Based on the literature, some ecological, economic and socio-cultural factors may determine the success of eWMUs and strongly impact LULCC. Therefore, additional efforts must be made to enhance our understanding of ecological and climatic processes; habitats must be monitored using a standardized methodology; biological, cultural, economic and institutional diversity must be incorporated into the planning, implementation and monitoring of eWMUs; and agreements must be established to strengthen social organization and human capital. Taking all this into account, we suggest that reducing vulnerability and improving double exposure areas by increasing the number and interconnectedness of eWMUs could represent an effective strategic approach at the municipal level to address LULCC and climate change.
The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country’s biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross-environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.
Ecosystems provide multiple benefits to people, including climate regulation. Previous efforts to quantify this ecosystem service have been either largely conceptual or based on complex atmospheric models. Here, we review previous research on this topic and propose a new and simple analytical approach for estimating the physical regulation of climate by ecosystems. The proposed metric estimates how land-cover change affects the loading of heat and moisture into the atmosphere, while also accounting for the relative contribution of wind-transported heat and moisture. Although feedback dynamics between land, atmosphere, and oceans are not modeled, the metric compares well with previous studies for several regions. We find that ecosystems have the strongest influence on surface climatic conditions in the boreal and tropical regions, where temperature and moisture changes could substantially offset or magnify greenhouse-forced changes. This approach can be extended to estimate the effects of changing land cover on local, physical climate processes that are relevant to society.
Changes in land use and management practices to store and sequester carbon are becoming integral to global efforts that both address climate change and alleviate poverty. Knowledge and evidence gaps nevertheless abound. This paper analyses the most pressing deficiencies in understanding carbon storage in both soils and above ground biomass and the related social and economic challenges associated with carbon sequestration projects. Focusing on the semi-arid and dry sub-humid systems of sub-Saharan Africa which are inhabited by many of the world’s poor, we identify important interdisciplinary opportunities and challenges that need to be addressed, in order for the poor to benefit from carbon storage, through both climate finance streams and the collateral ecosystem service benefits delivered by carbon-friendly land management. We emphasise that multi-stakeholder working across scales from the local to the regional is necessary to ensure that scientific advances can inform policy and practice to deliver carbon, ecosystem service and poverty alleviation benefits.
The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that savanna ecosystems supply, such as food and livestock production, fuel wood, and climate regulation. Flows of these services are strongly influenced by climate, land use and their interactions. Savannas cover c. 20% of the Earth’s land surface and changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly influence local people’s living conditions, as well as the climate system and global biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we use a dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM, to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure and distribution of West African savannas under current and anticipated future environmental conditions. We parameterized the model for West African savannas and extended it by including sub-models to simulate fire management, grazing, and wood cutting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift toward more wood dominated vegetation due to CO2 fertilization effects, increased water use efficiency and decreased fire activity. However, land use activities could maintain desired vegetation states that ensure fluxes of important ecosystem services, even under anticipated future conditions. Ecosystem management can mitigate climate change impacts on vegetation and delay or avoid undesired vegetation shifts. The results highlight the effects of land use on the future distribution and dynamics of savannas. The identification of management strategies is essential to maintain important ecosystem services under future conditions in savannas worldwide