Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is the possibility of collapse, where landscapes and the societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies of extreme events and strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single stress may provide poor estimates of the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. We conduct experiments on four models that simulate abrupt changes in the Chilika lagoon fishery, the Easter Island community, forest dieback and lake water quality—representing ecosystems with a range of anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under increasing levels of primary stress but additional stresses and/or the inclusion of noise in all four models bring the collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. We discuss the implications for further research and the need for humanity to be vigilant for signs that ecosystems are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought.

Impacts of forests and forestation on hydrological services in the Andes: A systematic review

Several Andean countries have planned to restore forest cover in degraded land to enhance the provision of multiple ecosystem services in response to international commitments such as the Bonn Challenge. Hydrological services, e.g. water supply, hydrological regulation and erosion mitigation, are particularly important to sustain the life of more than fifty million Andean people. While rapid and important forest cover changes have occurred during recent decades, critical information on the impact of forestation on hydrological services has not yet been synthesized in the context of Andean ecosystems. We define forestation as the establishment of forest by plantation or natural regeneration on areas that either had forest in the past or not. To help improve decision-making on forestation in the Andes, we reviewed the available literature concerning the impacts of forestation on water supply, hydrological regulation and mitigation of erosion and landslides. We also examined available data on the most relevant hydrological processes such as infiltration, evapotranspiration and runoff in forest stands. Hydrological services from native forests were also included as a reference state for comparing processes and services provided by forestation. Following systematic review protocols, we synthesized 155 studies using different methods, including meta-analyses and meta-regressions. Results show that forestation has had clear impacts on degraded soils, through reducing water erosion of soils and risk of moderate floods, increasing soil infiltration rate by 8 and topsoil organic matter (SOM). We found that 20 years of tree plantation was sufficient to recover infiltration rate and sediment yield close to the levels of native forests whereas SOM, soil water storage and surface runoff of native forests could not be recovered by forestation in the time scales examined. The benefits in terms of hydrological regulation are at the expense of a reduction in total water supply since forest cover was associated with higher water use in most Andean regions. Forestation with native species was underrepresented in the reviewed studies. The impact of forestation on landslides has also been largely overlooked in the Andes. At high elevations, exotic tree plantations on Andean grasslands (e.g. páramo and puna) had the most detrimental consequences since these grasslands showed an excellent capacity for hydrological regulation and erosion mitigation but also a water yield up to 40% higher than tree plantations. People engaged in forest restoration initiative should be aware that hydrological services may take some time for society and the environment to show clear benefits after forestation.

Cost-effectiveness of dryland forest restoration evaluated by spatial analysis of ecosystem services

Although Ecosystem restoration is widely used to combat environmental degradation, very few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this approach. We examine the potential impact of forest restoration on the value of multiple ecosystem services across four dryland areas in Latin America, by estimating the net value of ecosystem service benefits under different reforestation scenarios. The values of selected ecosystem services were mapped under each scenario, supported by the use of a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. We explored the economic potential of a change in land use from livestock grazing to restored native forest using different discount rates and performed a cost–benefit analysis of three restoration scenarios. Results show that passive restoration is cost-effective for all study areas on the basis of the services analyzed, whereas the benefits from active restoration are generally outweighed by the relatively high costs involved. These findings were found to be relatively insensitive to discount rate but were sensitive to the market value of carbon. Substantial variation in values was recorded between study areas, demonstrating that ecosystem service values are strongly context specific. However, spatial analysis enabled localized areas of net benefits to be identified, indicating the value of this approach for identifying the relative costs and benefits of restoration interventions across a landscape.

Fire, logging and establishment patterns of second-growth forests in south-central Chile: implications for their management and restoration

Second-growth forests represent the greatest potential resource for forest management and large-scale ecological restoration in many regions. In south-central Chile, second-growth forests include those dominated by Nothofagus obliqua, N. dombeyi, Drimys winteri, and a mixture of evergreen species, especially hardwoods. This article examines the influence of fire and logging on the establishment patterns and development of second-growth forests in south-central Chile. We characterize the size structure and composition of these four types of forests with sampling plots. The identification of the type of disturbance and its date of occurrence was determined from evidence such as fire scars and even-aged pulses of tree establishment. The size, structure and species composition of these forests indicate an intermediate state of development with an average density and basal area ranging from 1294 to 5038 trees ha-1 and from 59 to 85 m2 ha-1, respectively. Logging and/or devastating fires that occurred in the early decades of the 1900s promoted the relatively rapid establishment and growth of pioneer species (Nothofagus obliqua, N. dombeyi, D. winteri). In the Mixed Evergreen second-growth forests, mid-shade or shade tolerant species (e.g., Gevuina avellana, Eucryphia cordifolia, Amomyrtus luma, and A. meli) became established mostly through vegetative sprouting. Fires and logging have been pervasive factors in determining the structural and compositional uniformity of the native forests of south-central Chile. Ecological restoration at a landscape level, either by ecological processes (i.e., a reduction in fire frequency) and/or the structure and composition of second- growth forests, provide a relevant approach to accelerating the generation of attributes of old- growth forests, therefore meeting manifold societal demands for forest goods and services.