Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land–atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land–surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2–100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon.
Country: Brazil
Brazil
Most of the world’s nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil’s chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil’s Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.
Early in August this year, a high-profile summit was held in Belém, Brazil, where the eight Amazonian countries discussed the future of the Amazon. The nations recognized that the Amazon is very close to reaching a tipping point for turning into a degraded ecosystem. The result of their discussions was the Belém Declaration, an ambitious plan to protect and conserve the Amazon forests and to support Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Concern arose, however, because they failed to agree on attaining zero deforestation by 2030 and on avoiding new explorations in the Amazon for fossil fuel. The Declaration also lacks specific and measurable indicators. The ministers of Foreign Affairs therefore have a very important role in further refining the agenda and deadlines so that the Belém Declaration can be implemented.
For over three decades, science has pointed to the risks of the Amazon reaching a tipping point. Several recent studies now demonstrate how close it is: The dry season over southern Amazon has lengthened by 4 to 5 weeks over the past 40 years, the mortality of wet-loving tree species has increased, and the loss of trees is turning the forests into a carbon source rather than a carbon sink.
The Cerrado biome in Brazil is the most biodiverse savannah in the world1 and has a key role in stabilizing both the local and the global climate, storing carbon and providing fresh water to the country2. Yet, the Cerrado has little protection and is being converted for agriculture at an alarming rate. Recently released official data reveal that, in 2022, deforestation in the biome rose for the third consecutive year3. The area cleared was 25% higher than the previous year, reaching 10,689 km² (ref. 3), rivalling the rates of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (12,479 km²), despite the Cerrado being only half the size3. Almost three-quarters of that conversion took place in the MATOPIBA agricultural frontier, where nearly 25% of Cerrado’s soybean harvest is planted4. The current high rates of conversion even jeopardize the future of agricultural production in the Cerrado. The loss of the Cerrado has contributed to extreme climate events over the past decade5, which increased surface-sensible heat flux, reduced evapotranspiration and crop yields and threatened the feasibility of multi-cropping systems6, as well as exacerbated land concentration and farmers’ indebtedness.
The coming decades will define whether the
Amazon – home to more than 28 million inhabitants,
198 indigenous peoples, and harbouring the most
biodiverse forest, the largest freshwater reservoir
and the largest tropical bloc for climate regulation
on the planet – will become the great catalyst
for Brazil’s low-carbon economy. Or whether, in
the opposite direction, the Amazon will reach an
irreversible point of degradation, deepening current
inequalities and jeopardizing the stability and
competitiveness of the country’s entire economy.
How to guide the Legal Amazon towards a
decarbonization trajectory, transforming the region’s
economy so that it grows, generates opportunities,
values local cultures and environmental assets,
while fighting inequality and deforestation? This
question motivated the 76 researchers who signed
the New Economy for the Amazon report.
The study combines different techniques and
knowledge to present a unique depiction of the
Legal Amazon’s current economy, bringing to
light the region’s economic and environmental
relations with the rest of Brazil and the world.
The study focuses on carbon-intensive sectors
that must change course in order to become
a relevant part of a standing forest economy,
more suited to the challenges of this century.
The study further explores the role of the
bioeconomy, revealing a vigorous activity hitherto
invisible to conventional instruments used
to measure economic activity. Although it is
based on the secular form of production of the
original peoples, constantly innovated by local
technologies developed in Amazonian villages,
rural areas and cities, the bioeconomy remains
underestimated in terms of its current impact
and future potential. The work provides visibility
to these activities, demonstrating their relevance
as a solution for the region’s future economy.
The report also assesses the economic performance
of the Legal Amazon under different scenarios,
comparing the current trajectory, which has
been driving degradation, with alternative
decarbonization scenarios, especially in the
agricultural, livestock and energy sectors.
More than comparing GDP and job creation results,
as economic performance is traditionally assessed,
the New Economy for the Amazon gives shape to a
qualitative analysis of that which is wanted for the
future – and there is no future for Brazil without
the Amazon. The results show that it is impossible
for the country to reach its Paris Agreement
targets and contribute to curbing global warming
without eliminating deforestation in the Amazon.
Even assuming that deforestation is eliminated,
it will still be necessary to restore large areas of
the forest and adopt new ways of generating and
consuming energy, whether in rural or urban areas.
This report proposes a transition that generates
quality jobs and opportunities for the region’s
citizens, while driving important changes in the rest
of the country. The New Economy for the Amazon
can be the great catalyst for the decarbonization
of the entire Brazilian economy and the greatest
opportunity for economic and social development
in the country’s contemporary history.
The risks from climate change are ever-growing, especially in more vulnerable and exposed regions such as coastlines. The rise in sea level and increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-induced coastal hazards are threatening the increasing coastal populations. Brazil, with its 8,500 km of coast, is one of the countries most at risk from coastal flooding and erosion. Nature-based solutions have been suggested as climate adaptation strategies with the greatest potential to counteract coastal hazards stemming from sea-level rise and safeguard coastal cities. However, there is still a knowledge gap in the scientific literature on the effectiveness of nature-based solutions, especially at large spatial scales in Central and South America. Here, we assessed the risks from climate-induced hazards of coastal erosion and flooding related to sea-level rise on the Brazilian coast, and the effectiveness of nature-based solutions as climate adaptation strategies. We reveal that nature-based shoreline protection can reduce by 2.5 times the risks to the Brazilian coastline. The loss of existing natural habitats would substantially increase the area and population at risk from these climate-induced hazards. Worrisomely, legal mechanisms to protect these natural habitats are few and being weakened. Only 10% of the coastal natural habitats are within protected areas, and these alone do not ensure coastal protection, as our results indicate that the loss of unprotected natural habitats has about the same risk as the total absence of natural habitats. Our results warn of the severe consequences of the continued loss of natural habitats along the coast. Thus, actions towards the maintenance and protection of coastal habitats are paramount for climate adaptation and to ensure the well-being and livelihoods of coastal populations. Brazil has a central role in demonstrating the benefits of strategies based on nature-based solutions for shoreline protection, favoring their implementation worldwide. We provide both the natural habitat maps and the maps with model results with spatial and numerical information so readers can explore the relations between the natural habitats and coastal risk indexes at a sub-national level and foster their use by local stakeholders.
Brazil’s nine Amazonian states, here collectively referred to as Amazônia, include some of the world’s richest ecosystems, including the Amazon rainforest and parts of the Cerrado savanna and Pantanal wetlands. The region is also among Brazil’s poorest socioeconomically. As a result, sustainable, inclusive development of Amazônia calls for raising living standards while protecting natural forests. A Balancing Act for Brazil’s Amazonian States: An Economic Memorandum explores how a recalibrated development approach can achieve these goals. In the shorter term, there is an urgent need to halt deforestation–a massive destruction of natural wealth that poses risks to the climate and economy. Amazônia is Brazil’s deforestation hot spot, and the Amazon rainforest is approaching tipping points into broad and permanent forest loss. Reversing the recent increase in deforestation requires stronger land and forest governance, including land regularization and more effective law enforcement. In the longer term, both Brazil and Amazônia need a new growth model. This model would be anchored in productivity rather than resource extraction and it would diversify the export basket beyond commodities. A more balanced structural transformation requires the lagging urban sectors, such as manufacturing and services, to step up to promote economic growth, reduce pressure on the agricultural frontier, and generate jobs for Brazil and Amazônia’s largely urban populations. The public-good value of Amazônia’s forests could generate conservation finance linked to verifiable reductions in deforestation. Such financing would support a new development approach, combining forest protection, productivity, balanced structural transformation, sustainable production techniques (including the bioeconomy), and other measures to address the needs of Amazônia’s urban and rural populations. This approach must also heed the needs and interests of Amazônia’s traditional communities. Given both the value and the fragility of Amazônia’s ecosystems, coupled with considerable socioeconomic local needs, the stakes are high—for Amazônia, Brazil, and the world.
The Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF) is a global biodiversity hotspot, but its carbon sink capacity, especially in the subtropical portion, is poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between biodiversity measures (i.e., taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity) and net carbon change across subtropical BAF, testing whether there is a win–win situation in the conservation of biodiversity and carbon sink capacity across forests of distinct ages. We obtained the net carbon change from 55 permanent plots, from early successional to old-growth forests, by combining the carbon gains and losses across two censuses. We found that subtropical BAF are on average acting as a carbon sink, but carbon gains and losses varied a lot across plots, especially within late successional/old-growth forests. The carbon sink was consistent across different forest ages, and we did not find a relationship between biodiversity and net carbon change in subtropical BAF. Therefore, conservation programs should aim at both targets in order to maximize the protection of biodiversity and carbon capture across the secondary and old-growth subtropical BAF, especially in a scenario of global changes.
Many tropical forestlands are experiencing changes in land-tenure regimes, but how these changes may affect deforestation rates remains ambiguous. Here, we use Brazil’s land-tenure and deforestation data and quasi-experimental methods to analyze how six land-tenure regimes (undesignated/untitled, private, strictly-protected and sustainable-use protected areas, indigenous, and quilombola lands) affect deforestation across 49 spatiotemporal scales. We find that undesignated/untitled public regimes with poorly defined tenure rights increase deforestation relative to any alternative regime in most contexts. The privatization of these undesignated/untitled lands often reduces this deforestation, particularly when private regimes are subject to strict environmental regulations such as the Forest Code in Amazonia. However, private regimes decrease deforestation less effectively and less reliably than alternative well-defined regimes, and directly privatizing either conservation regimes or indigenous lands would most likely increase deforestation. This study informs the ongoing political debate around land privatization/protection in tropical landscapes and can be used to envisage policy aligned with sustainable development goals.
Zero-deforestation supply chain policies that leverage the market power of commodity buyers to change agricultural producer behavior can reduce forest clearing in regions with rapid commodity expansion and weak forest governance. Yet leakage—when deforestation is pushed to other regions—may dilute the global effectiveness of regionally successful policies. Here we show that domestic leakage offsets 43-50% of the avoided deforestation induced by existing and proposed zero-deforestation supply chain policies in Brazil’s soy sector. However, cross-border leakage is insignificant (<3%) because soybean production is displaced to existing U.S. farmland. Eliminating deforestation from the supply chains of all firms exporting Brazilian soy to the EU or China from 2011-2016 could have reduced net global deforestation by 2% and Brazilian deforestation by 9%. Thus, if major tropical commodity importers (e.g., the EU) require traders to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, it could help bend the curve on global forest loss.
- 1. The environmental benefits and lower implementation costs of (assisted) natural forest regrowth (NFR) compared to tree planting qualify it as a viable strategy to scale up forest restoration. However, NFR is not suitable in all places, because the potential for forest regeneration depends on the socio-environmental context and differs greatly over space and time. Therefore, it is critical to quantify the potential contribution of NFR for reaching forest restoration targets and complying with environmental policies.
- 2. Here, we quantify the socio-environmental consequences of NFR by considering four targets differing in restored area in the Atlantic Forest (6, 8, 15 and 22 Mha). We quantified the compliance with environmental policies, expected distribution of natural and restored vegetation within the biome and social fairness (distribution of restoration efforts and costs within small, medium and large-sized properties) of two hypothetical forest restoration scenarios.
- 3. We show that large-scale forest restoration prioritizing the areas with the highest potential for NFR (Scenario I) allows us to comply with one-third of the current environmental debt in the Atlantic Forest. Furthermore, this scenario disproportionately burdens specific types of land use, increases socioeconomic inequalities and concentrates restoration activities in regions in which the natural vegetation cover is already high.
- 4. By contrast, Scenario II—eradicating the environmental debt that results from environmental policies, then prioritizing areas with the lowest overall restoration costs until reaching the restoration targets—is socially fairer and maximizes compliance with environmental policies. Its outcomes are more homogeneously distributed among counties and small, medium and large-sized properties from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Despite doubling the implementation costs, the lower overall restoration costs in Scenario II result from significantly lower opportunity costs than in Scenario I.
- 5. Synthesis and application. The environmental, social and economic outputs of large-scale forest restoration in the Atlantic Forest can be maximized when NFR and tree planting are balanced (Scenario II). To achieve compliance with forest restoration commitments, we thus advocate for the site-specific selection of the best forest restoration strategy to guarantee social fairness and compliance with environmental policies at minimum overall restoration costs.
- Restoring the degraded Atlantic Forest is one of the biggest conservation challenges in Brazil. In a biome with high human presence, understanding the potential for restoration approaches, such as agroforestry, to provide benefits to smallholder farmers and biodiversity is essential in developing equitable restoration strategies.
- Smallholder or family farmers are essential to national food security, producing most fruit and vegetables consumed in Brazil. Their farms can also provide ecological stepping stones for biodiversity. To better understand their role in Atlantic Forest restoration, this study explores the use of agroforestry by smallholder farmers from the Movimento Sem Terra (MST), the Rural Landless Workers’ Movement, in Pontal do Paranapanema.
- We use quantitative and qualitative data to assess farmer perceptions of the measures which support agroforestry farming, barriers to implementation and its impact on indicators of wellbeing. We find agroforestry farmers report significant benefits in 8 of 18 tested indicators. Attitudes to agroforestry are varied, but common themes emerge including the high value of tree cover for shade and cooling effects, and the difficulties in selling agroforestry products. Our results show lack of policy support and initial investment needs are the biggest constraints to agroforestry, but opportunity cost is not considered a large barrier.
- Tailored policies and financial measures are needed to integrate thousands of smallholder farmers into the Atlantic Forest restoration agenda, helping to reach biome restoration targets while supporting rural livelihoods and national food security. Further research is required into links between additional socio-economic and biogeographical variables and agroforestry uptake in the region
Minimising the environmental impacts of biofuel production is an urgent global challenge. Over the next decade, increased demand for sugarcane-based ethanol in Brazil could result in over one million hectares of the nation’s native forest and grassland being replaced directly by sugarcane or indirectly by displaced crops and pastureland. Here we integrate future ethanol demand scenarios in Brazil within a spatially-explicit planning framework aimed at minimising impacts of ethanol-driven agricultural expansion on aboveground carbon stocks and 453 species of immediate conservation concern. We show that ethanol-driven agricultural expansion that is blind to carbon and biodiversity values would release 44.9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq), and would impact habitat for at least 273 species. When compared to this conservation-blind scenario, agricultural expansion that avoids carbon and biodiversity values would reduce emissions by 87% (5.8 MtCO2eq) and would avoid impacts on habitat for 113 species. These findings are immediately relevant to policy makers seeking to guide ethanol-driven land-use change away from important environmental areas in Brazil. Our planning methodology can also be extended to other natural areas at risk of bioenergy-driven agricultural expansion.
Amazonia hosts the Earth’s largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change. Here we investigate Amazonia’s carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 2018. We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends. We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia.
To counter increasing CO2 emissions and plant biodiversity loss, ecological restoration has been proposed as a means to sequester carbon as well as to increase species diversity in tropical landscapes. Here we examine how natural regeneration is associated with changing plant diversity and carbon stocks in the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. Aboveground carbon stocks and plant species diversity (using taxonomic, functional, phylogenetic and conservation metrics) were estimated in areas undergoing natural regeneration, ranging in age from seven to >80 years. Aboveground carbon, diversity and conservation metrics increase rapidly and concomitantly over time during forest natural regeneration, but even with carbon increase over time, we found the maximum taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity possible for the region. These results show the importance of considering regeneration as an alternative to increase carbon stocks, diversity, and species conservation in carbon-focused restoration plans. Our results showed co-benefits between carbon stocks, diversity, and conservation. Diversity (taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic) increases along with carbon stocks, but functional evenness does not. Age of the areas also influences co-benefits, as they increase over time. Thus, we demonstrate that ecological restoration not only sequesters carbon and has benefits with respect to climate change but is also responsible for increasing biodiversity and conservation. This mutualism between different benefits of natural regeneration attends to a variety of international concerns.
Ecological infrastructure refers to naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable services to people, such as filtered water and disaster risk reduction. With natural resources becoming scarcer, there is a growing interest in reinvesting in naturally functioning ecosystems in the form of ecological infrastructure, with the assumption that ecological infrastructure complements engineered infrastructure. In many low- and middle-income countries, ecological infrastructure interventions are seen as a key strategy to simultaneously alleviate poverty and improve ecosystem functioning. However, the socio-economic outcomes of ecological infrastructure investments remain poorly documented. We address this knowledge gap by synthesizing research (n = 53 cases) that analyses how ecological infrastructure investments affect ten different socio-economic dimensions, such as income and food security in low- and middle-income countries. We find that ecological infrastructure investments primarily lead to positive outcomes for short-term income and natural capital, whereas positive outcomes for other socio-economic dimensions are less frequently observed. Cases with a high degree of participant involvement in the early implementation of ecological infrastructure investments are significantly more likely to capture positive outcomes across a variety of socio-economic dimensions. Analogously, cases spanning multiple methods – rather than adopting either a qualitative or a quantitative approach – report positive outcomes across more dimensions.
The choice of areas for nature conservation involves the attempt to maximize the benefits, whether by carrying out an economic activity or by the provision of Ecosystem Services. Studies are needed to improve the understanding of the effect of the extent and position along the watershed of restored areas on soil and water conservation. This study aimed to understand how different restoration strategies might reflect in soil conservation and sediment retention. Using InVEST tool, sediment transport was simulated in a small 12 km2 watershed (Posses River, in Southeast Brazil), where one of first Brazilian Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) projects is being carried out, comparing different hypothetical restoration strategies. With 25% of restoration, sediment export decreased by 78% for riparian restoration, and 27% for the steepest slopes restoration. On the other hand, the decrease in soil loss was lower for riparian restoration, with a 16% decrease, while the steepest slopes restoration reduced it by 21%. This mismatch between the reduction of sediment export and soil loss was explained by the fact that forest not only reduces soil loss locally but also traps sediment arriving from the upper parts of the watershed. While the first mechanism is important to provide soil stability, decreasing the risk of landslip, and to maintain agricultural productivity, the second can improve water quality and decrease the risk of silting, with positive effects on the water reservoirs at the outlet of the watershed. This suggests that Riparian and the Steepest Slopes restoration strategies are complementary in the sense of preventing sediments from reaching the water bodies as well as protecting them at their origin (with the reduction of erosion), so it will be advisable to consider the two types of restoration.
Rio Doce watershed has centuries of land degradation and it was the main victim of the worst environmental disaster in Brazil’s history. This process of deforestation and soil erosion could be significantly mitigated if compliance to the new Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) would be ensured. Here, we show how the percentage of forest kept in areas of permanent preservation (APP) required by the NVPL drives the overall resilience and resistance of the entire Rio Doce watershed and how it contributes to the national restoration commitments. We used water quality as a proxy for watershed resilience and resistance and we found that compliance to NVPL would require restoration of about 716 thousand hectares of riverine forest across the watershed. We found that increased forested areas improved watershed resistance and resilience during the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. Our estimates suggest that the implementation of the NVPL could improve water quality, in addition to removing 14 Gt CO2 yr−1 ha−1 from the atmosphere. At this scale, the forest restoration effort would represent 6% of Brazil’s restoration commitment. Financial feasibility of such a restoration enterprise is also achievable; at the highest possible estimate, it would compromise about 59% of the total fund proposed by the mining companies responsible for the accident. Given the low socioeconomic indicators of this basin, intervention should be designed so as to improve local livelihoods and, therefore, contribute to local adaptation and sustainable development.
We developed an indicator that defines priority municipalities in order to facilitate the deployment of preventive policies and strategies for ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change (EbA) in Brazilian municipalities. Based on the premises that poor people are the population most vulnerable to climate change and that conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems are adaptive to climate change, our indicator uses three parameters: (1) poverty, (2) proportion of natural-vegetation cover, and (3) exposure to climate change. Thus, we searched for Brazilian municipalities that simultaneously belonged to the quartile of municipalities with the highest percentage of poverty, the quartile with the highest percentage of natural-vegetation cover, and the quartile with the highest exposure indices in two global climate models (Eta-HadGEM, Eta-Miroc). We found 398 (7.1%) EbA hotspots among 5565 Brazilian municipalities, which comprise 36% of the total area of native remnants in the country and are home to 22% of the poor people in Brazil. In their majority, these municipalities cover significant portions of the Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic forest, and indeed, these regions are recognised as some of the most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Considering the relevance of these biomes for the global water and nutrient cycle (Amazon), global food security (Cerrado), vulnerability to desertification (Caatinga), and biodiversity (all) we discuss the adaptive strategies in place, the need to bring them to scale, and existing policy gaps. Finally, in an effort to guide international and national investment and policies, we discuss how the approach described here can be applied to societies inhabiting tropical forests, savannas, and semiarid zones in other parts of the world. In particular, we propose that the indicator developed here is a simple and fast way to achieve early detection of priority municipalities for deployment of EbA action and policies, particularly in tropical developing countries.
This paper combines hydrological observations and modelling results of a semi arid catchment in Brazil that could lead to a better understanding of the hydrology of similar catchments in semi-arid regions. The Tapacura catchment (area 470.5 km(2)) in the Northeast of Brazil was selected for this study. The Distributed Catchment Scale Model, DiCaSM, was calibrated and validated for the stream flows of the Tapacura catchment. The model performance was further tested by comparing simulated and observed scaled soil moisture. The results showed the ability of the model to simulate the stream flow and the scaled soil moisture. The simulated impacts of climate change of low emission (B1) scenarios, on the worst perspective, indicated the possibility of reduction in surface water availability by -13.90%, -22.63% and -.32.91% in groundwater recharge and by -4.98%, -14.28% and -20.58% in surface flows for the time spans 20102039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099, respectively. This would cause severe impacts on water supply in the region. Changing the land use, for example by reforestation of part of the catchment area which is currently arable land, would lead to a decrease in both groundwater recharge by -4.2% and stream flow by -2.7%. Changing land use from vegetables to sugar cane would result in decreasing groundwater recharge by almost -11%, and increasing stream flow by almost 5%. The combination of possible impacts of climate change and land use requires a proper plan for water resources management and mitigation strategies.
Crop-livestock-forest (CLFi) and crop-livestock (CLi) systems are among the most recent agricultural developments in Brazil, and aligned with the principles of cleaner production. Such integrated systems can provide at least three types of product from the same land area over a defined period. This paper presents a holistic sustainability evaluation using life cycle assessment to compare combinations of integrated and conventional systems in the Brazilian Cerrado region. The study assesses a comprehensive set of indicators in the three sustainability dimensions: environmental, economic, and social (socio-eco-efficiency). By prioritizing CLFi, the production area to meet the demand of grains, meat and energy for 500 Brazilians, from 2007 to 2014, reached 70 ha, while the conventional systems would need 420 ha to meet the same demand. This result shows that it is possible to increase production to meet the growing food global demand without the need of expanding the agricultural frontier, preserving the remaining forestland. CLFi combinations systems decreased 55% in climate change potential (2389 t of CO2 equivalent), when compared to the conventional systems. It was also observed that the more integrated systems improved the quality of employment, promoted future generation investments in society, and decreased the total production costs in 54%, when compared to conventional systems. Therefore, intensification achieved through good practices such as association, rotation, and succession by an agroforestry system, optimization of inputs (including water, energy, fertilizers, and crop protection agents), land use, soil quality, biodiversity and social aspects
The Caatinga is a botanically unique semi-arid ecosystem in northeast Brazil whose vegetation is adapted to the periodic droughts that characterize this region. However, recent extreme droughts events caused by anthropogenic climate change have challenged its ecological resilience. Here, we evaluate how deforestation and protection status affect the response of the Caatinga vegetation to drought. Specifically, we compared vegetation responses to drought in natural and deforested areas as well as inside and outside protected areas, using a time-series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic data for 2008–2013. We observed a strong effect of deforestation and land protection on overall vegetation productivity and in productivity dynamics in response to precipitation. Overall, deforested areas had significantly lower NDVI and delayed greening in response to precipitation. By contrast, strictly protected areas had higher productivity and considerable resilience to low levels of precipitation, when compared to sustainable use or unprotected areas. These results highlight the importance of protected areas in protecting ecosystem processes and native vegetation in the Caatinga against the negative effects of climate change and deforestation. Given the extremely small area of the Caatinga currently under strict protection, the creation of new conservation areas must be a priority to ensure the sustainability of ecological processes and to avoid further desertification.
Societal adaptation to climate change requires measures that simultaneously reduce poverty, protect or restore biodiversity and ecosystem services, and remove atmospheric greenhouse gases. Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change is the type of adaptation that aims to combine these outcomes and is particularly relevant to developing nations that safeguard most of the planetary biodiversity and healthy ecosystems. Although conceptually new, ecosystem-based adaptation is fastly gaining traction both as a research arena and as an integrated policy instrument. This paper aims to revisit this concept and to discuss the science and policy challenges faced by it. It argues that ecosystem-based adaptation is a policy mix that promotes adaptive transition, which is a step towards sustainability transitions. It faces two major challenges in promoting transitions towards adaptation and sustainability. First, research on ecosystem-based adaptation mostly takes place within the socio-ecological systems framework, which is often carried out in isolation from socio-technical systems research. It is widely recognized that both types of research should be integrated, for the benefit of science and policy-making, and the paper discusses the potential of ecosystem-based adaptation in providing such bridge. Second, there is a divide between global and local research and policy, while at local level this divide is related to the setting (e.g., coastal, urban, rural). The resulting mosaic of information lacks integration, which hinders scalability of actions and policies. Finally, I examine the opportunity for ecological and conservation scientists to interact with social, economic and political scientists on ecosystem-based adaptation research, and discuss how timely this opportunity is for Brazil.
Biodiversity hotspots are among some of the habitats most threatened by climate change, and the Brazilian Atlantic forest is no exception. Only 11.6 % of the natural vegetation cover remains in an intensely fragmented state, which results in high vulnerability of this biome to climate change. Since >60 % of the Brazilian people live within the Atlantic forest domain, societies both in rural and urban areas are also highly vulnerable to climate change. This review examines the vulnerabilities of biodiversity and society in the Atlantic forest to climate change, as well as impacts of land use and climate change, particularly on recent biological evidence of strong synergies and feedback between them. We then discuss the crucial role ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change might play in increasing the resilience of local society to future climate scenarios and provide some ongoing examples of good adaptive practices, especially related to ecosystem restoration and conservation incentive schemes such as payment for ecosystem services. Finally, we list a set of arguments about why we trust that the Atlantic forest can turn from a ‘‘shrinking biodiversity hotspot’’ to a climate adaptation ‘‘hope spot’’ whereby society’s vulnerability to climate change is reduced by protecting and restoring nature and improving human life standards.
Ecologically relevant restoration of secondary Atlantic forest on abandoned land offers a potential means to recover biodiversity and improve crucial ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. Early secondary successional trajectories are determined by a range of environmental factors that influence plant community development. Context-specific understanding of forest vegetation communities, their dynamics, and underlying drivers is needed for future restoration strategies. In this study we examined relationships between soil (chemical and physical) and environmental (landscape and topographical) characteristics, plant community attributes, and carbon stocks during early secondary succession. Data were collected at two sites undergoing early secondary succession in seasonally-dry Atlantic Forest (Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil). Both sites were previously used for pasture and abandoned at similar times, but showed differing vegetation communities. We found tree biomass and diversity and ecosystem carbon storage to be strongly positively related to the amount of surrounding forest, less steep slopes and clay soils, and negatively to the abundance of the shrub Leandra aurea. Soil carbon pools significantly increased with aboveground tree biomass. The only factor significantly affecting the metric of overall successional development (combining tree biomass and diversity) was total surrounding forest cover. Our findings suggest recovery of secondary forest and below- and aboveground carbon storage is limited by the amount of adjacent forest, some soil properties and dense shrub establishment down-regulating the succession process. Overall we offer evidence of potential to improve recovery of Atlantic forest with ecologically relevant seeding/planting programmes and selective shrub removal that could benefit ecosystem carbon storage.