The promise and the challenges of Brazil’s new NDC

At COP29, Brazil was one of the first countries to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), pledging to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to two-thirds by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. The early submission of credible and ambitious NDCs by signatories is critical for keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal within reach. This move marks a significant step under the Paris Agreement, which requires countries to update their NDCs every five years. The next round of submissions is due by February 2025, ahead of COP30 in Belém, where all Parties’ NDCs will be reviewed.

Brazil’s new NDC: ambitious targets with room for improvement

Brazil’s updated NDC commits to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 59%–67% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. This translates to a target range of 1.05 GtCO2e (upper limit) to 0.85 GtCO2e (lower, more ambitious limit) by 2035. This is a marked improvement from the country’s 2016 NDC, which set less ambitious goals of a 37% reduction by 2025 and 43% by 2030.

While Brazil’s early submission has been applauded, critics argue that the country should strive to meet the lower, more ambitious end of its target range. As one of the world’s largest economies and a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, Brazil’s leadership is pivotal, especially as it prepares to host COP30 in 2025. The country’s vast biodiversity, including 60% of the Amazon rainforest, positions it uniquely to influence global climate discussions.

Alignment with our research

Brazil’s NDC’s target of 0.85 GtCO2eq by 2035 closely aligns with projections from one of the scenarios developed in a study led by NbSI Fellow Aline Soterroni, published last year (Soterroni et al., 2023), supported by the Agile Initiative. The research integrated Brazil’s official emissions model (BLUES) with the detailed GLOBIOM-Brazil model, focusing on land use and agriculture, sectors responsible for nearly three-quarters of Brazil’s emissions.

The study estimates that fully implementing Brazil’s Forest Code could reduce emissions to 0.82 GtCO2e by 2035. This would require halting illegal deforestation and restoring 12 million hectares of native vegetation. Dr Soterroni emphasised the importance of the Forest Code, stating:

“Although our study indicates that a more ambitious scenario would be possible for 2035, it also reinforces the urgent need of the Forest Code’s implementation for Brazil to achieve significant short-term emissions reductions. These efforts would also deliver multiple benefits for people and nature, including enhanced resilience against climate change impacts and the conservation of biodiversity in critical ecosystems such as the Amazon”.

Strengths of Brazil’s updated NDC

Brazil’s NDC demonstrates leadership in several aspects.

The document underscores the importance of guaranteeing the rights of Indigenous peoples and traditional populations, while promoting climate justice and advancing human rights. This commitment represents a significant breakthrough in acknowledging the essential, practical, and transformative roles that Indigenous peoples and local communities play in safeguarding and restoring biodiversity and, by extension, maintaining the health of the biosphere. Considering the pivotal role these communities play in stewarding Brazil’s uniquely biodiverse and carbon-rich biomes, this recognition is both timely and vital. Civil society have also commended Brazil for making reference to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” and for making one of its National Mitigation Objectives to “encourage the replacement of fossil fuels by promoting the development and use of sustainable biofuels and electrification solutions”.

The document underscores the importance of guaranteeing the rights of Indigenous peoples and traditional populations, while promoting climate justice and advancing human rights.

To implement its NDC, Brazil will update its national climate plan, incorporating national mitigation and adaptation strategies. These strategies will be broken down into “16 sectoral adaptation plans and seven sectoral mitigation plans, which are intended to be finalised around the mid[dle of] 2025.” Ensuring that NDC targets are closely linked to and translated into national policies is crucial to maintaining the plan’s credibility. The NDC highlights Brazil’s commitment to mainstreaming climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, adopting a “whole-of-government, whole-of-society and whole-of-economy” approach to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.

Another strength of the NDC is that it emphasises the importance of the protection and restoration of nature, ecosystem-based adaptation, and of integrating nature-based solutions with sustainable urban development.

Concerns and challenges

Despite its strengths, Brazil’s NDC raises several concerns. One issue is the broad emission target range of 1.05 GtCO2e to 0.85 GtCO2e by 2035, which may complicate implementation and analysis due to its significant variability.

Another concern is the omission of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s pledge to achieve “zero deforestation” in Brazil by 2030. While the NDC includes language about “coordinated and continuous efforts to achieve zero deforestation, by eliminating illegal deforestation and compensating for the legal suppression of native vegetation and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from it,” this phrasing is vague and lacks a clear, time-bound commitment. Such ambiguity leaves potential loopholes for continued deforestation, undermining the credibility of Brazil’s climate objectives.

Worryingly, the NDC places significant reliance on biofuels and bioenergy as part of its transition plans, using language such as aiming to “expand sustainable biofuel production,” “develop bioenergy-related value chains,” and “adopt measures to increase the use of biofuels in the Brazilian energy matrix.” Specific mention is made of “expanding biofuel production associated with carbon capture and storage to meet the demand for negative greenhouse gas emissions,” referring to the practice of Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). However, BECCS remains highly contentious, with scientific uncertainty surrounding its sustainability and significant challenges related to nascent carbon capture and storage technology, land-use requirements, and potential trade-offs with food and water security. There are also uncertainties about the presumed advantage of bioenergy crops over fossil fuels when emissions are assessed across their full lifecycle. Large-scale monoculture plantations for bioenergy crops are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts such as droughts, further questioning their viability. These risks exemplify how climate action could come at the expense of other societal goals, signalling a misalignment between Brazil’s climate and nature agendas.

Brazil, like a great many other nations, missed the COP16 deadline to submit its National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP). It’s important that its NBSAP complements rather than contradicts the NDC, working synergistically to balance climate and biodiversity goals. As Soterroni et al. (2023) demonstrates, nearly 80% of Brazil’s net-zero pledge could be achieved through nature-based solutions (i.e halting deforestation and restoring native habitats), offering a sustainable pathway to emissions reductions whilst protecting much of Earth’s biodiversity and the ancestral lands of many Indigenous groups.

Adding to these concerns, ongoing oil exploration in the Amazon basin starkly contradicts Brazil’s stated ambitions to lead in environmental stewardship. Such activities jeopardise both biodiversity and the credibility of the country’s climate leadership.

While the country’s early updated NDC submission is encouraging and the headline emission reduction targets appear to be aligned with the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals, gaps remain around its implementation. As COP29 has come to a close, the world now looks to Brazil, the host of COP30, dubbed the ‘nature COP’, to lead by example and align policy agendas on climate action and biodiversity conservation.

Read a more detailed analysis of Brazil’s NDC for more information.