Science vs politics: Why the Soy Moratorium is critical for protecting the Amazon

The Soy Moratorium is a landmark agreement between soybean traders, governments and civil society to avoid the purchase of soy produced on land deforested in the Amazon. In early 2026 the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) announced its withdrawal from the Moratorium. NbSI Research Fellow Aline Soterroni explains why this decision goes against the science. March 2, 2026

The Soy Moratorium is a landmark agreement between soybean traders, governments and civil society to avoid the purchase of soy produced on land deforested in the Amazon. It is widely recognised as one of the world’s most effective voluntary, multisectoral agreements for decoupling direct deforestation from soy expansion in the Brazilian Amazon.

Despite this success, in early 2026 the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) – which represents the largest soybean traders in Brazil – announced its withdrawal from the Moratorium.

This comes against a backdrop of arguments that the soy moratorium is no longer necessary – claiming that Brazil’s Forest Code alone can ensure high socio-environmental standards in agricultural production.

But scenario modelling by Dr Aline Soterroni tells a different story.

Her findings show that even rigorous implementation of the Forest Code is not enough alone to prevent half of deforestation projected to accommodate future agricultural expansion in Brazil until 2050.

Effective and urgent implementation of the Forest Code is essential. However, complementary policies, such as the Soy Moratorium, remain necessary to protect the Amazon rainforest.

Moreover the Moratorium does not limit soy production. On the contrary, Aline’s research shows that expanding the Amazon Soy Moratorium to cover the Cerrado biome would still enable Brazilian soybean production to grow to meet demand to 2050. At the same time, it would protect native vegetation which is critical for the resilience of the country’s agricultural systems against the impacts of climate change.

Weakening protection of the Amazon threatens national security

The Amazon rainforest was highlighted recently in the UK National Security Assessment as one of the ecosystems ‘critical for UK national security.’ The report warns that degradation or collapse of these ecosystems is highly likely to drive forced displacement, increased global food and water scarcity, shifts in disease dynamics, changes in global weather patterns and intensified geopolitical competition for remaining resources.

The UK is deeply reliant on global markets for food – for example 18% of animal feed is made from soy sourced from South America.

The Amazon rainforest is already dangerously close to a tipping point – estimates suggest collapse is likely at 20-25% deforestation, and current levels are already at 17%.

Now more than ever safeguards must be strengthened rather than weakened. Supporting supply chains that are genuinely sustainable and free from deforestation is not only essential for environmental protection, but also for long-term economic stability and national security.

 

Read an expert opinion on this topic by Dr Aline Soterroni in The Conversation:

In English (The Conversation UK): Weakening the soy moratorium in Brazil: a political choice that ignores the science

In Portuguese (The Conversation Brasil): Esvaziamento da Moratória da Soja: uma decisão política na contramão da ciência