Hopes for COP28 from Dr Aline Soterroni

Brazil waterfall
I hope governments, including Brazil's, recognize the importance of representing nature-based solutions holistically in climate pledges for achieving both climate mitigation and adaptation goals as well as curbing biodiversity loss. I also hope to see Brazil's bolder commitments beyond illegal deforestation control and the alignment between short and long-term ambitions.

Dr Aline Soterroni shares some of her thoughts ahead of COP28:

“I hope that Parties will agree to enhance the language concerning the phase-out of all fossil fuels in the COP28 decision text. Equally important is that the agreed-upon target for climate financing (US$100 billion annually) will be met and delivered. I will track the political decisions around the Global Stocktake (GST) as it will provide a course correction for Parties to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.”

Additionally, I hope for a clear recognition of the intertwined crises of climate and biodiversity loss, especially when debating renewable energy deployment through engineered solutions that can have detrimental impacts on nature and people. Furthermore, I will closely follow discussions surrounding Brazil’s climate action and ambition, and the priorities for COP30 in Belém.

The highlights will be the important 22% decrease in Amazon deforestation, the updated NDC that corrects its short-term targets, and a fund proposal to conserve tropical forest worldwide. It is worth mentioning that Brazil is still reconstructing its climate ambition after recent dismantling of national climate and environmental policies.

I hope that the Brazilian government recognises the importance of representing nature-based solutions holistically in its climate plans for achieving both climate mitigation and adaptation goals as well as curbing biodiversity loss.

Our recently published study entitled “Nature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050” underscores the essential role of nature-based solutions in a credible net-zero pathway for Brazil. It reveals that by eliminating both illegal and legal deforestation and promoting large-scale native vegetation restoration, Brazil could mitigate nearly 80% of its long-term net-zero pledge. However, it requires the country to go beyond the implementation of existing policies, like the Forest Code, which alone could bridge only 38% of the gap to net zero emissions by 2050.

I hope to see commitments to add Brazil’s net-zero pledge into the National Policy for Climate Change (PNMC). This inclusion will trigger advancements across all sectors and foster alignment between short and long-term ambitions.