Assisted tree migration can reduce but not avert the decline of forest ecosystem services in Europe

Achille Mauri a b c, Marco Girardello d, Giovanni Forzieri e, Federica Manca a, Pieter S.A. Beck d, Alessandro Cescatti d, Giovanni Strona | Global Environmental Change Volume 80, May 2023, 102676 | 2023 | Peer Reviewed | Review |


European forests are facing multiple natural and anthropogenic pressures that are expected to become more severe in the next decades. Tree diversity is projected to decline in many areas across the continent. How this will affect the provision of forest services remains an open question, whose answer depends, among others, on the practical and theoretical challenges of incorporating assisted migration into climate adaptation strategies. Here, we tackle the issue by combining a large dataset of tree species occurrences, future climatic projections, and data on tree functional traits and tree-specific forest services into a novel modelling framework.