Ecosystem collapse recognised as a critical national security issue by UK government

The UK Government has just released a report that, if taken seriously, should transform how we think about climate, nature and security. 'Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security' is an official national security assessment that applies the same analytical tools used for high-impact security threats - structured uncertainty judgements, confidence levels, and “reasonable worst-case” planning - to the ecological crisis. Its conclusions align closely with the evidence presented at the recent National Emergency Briefing and with the World Economic Forum's latest Global Risks Report. January 21, 2026

The UK Government has just released a report that, if taken seriously, should transform how we think about climate, nature and security. The assessment, Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, is an official national security analysis commissioned by the government. It applies the same kinds of methods used for high-impact security threats – structured uncertainty judgements, confidence levels, and “reasonable worst-case” planning – to the ecological crisis.

Its main conclusion is stark: global ecosystem degradation and collapse pose a serious threat to UK food security, economic stability and international security.

In other words, the UK state is now acknowledging that biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are not marginal environmental concerns. They are systemic risks at the foundations of our safety and prosperity.

This is precisely the picture set out at the recent National Emergency Briefing on climate and nature at Westminster Central Hall, where security, health and climate experts – including NbSI Director Professor Nathalie Seddon – briefed parliamentarians, officials and the public on the converging risks from climate breakdown and nature loss.

Now, for the first time, integrated risk framing appears in an official national security assessment.

What the assessment tells us

The report draws together evidence from climate science, ecology, economics and security analysis. It concludes that every major global ecosystem is degrading, and that many are on trajectories that could lead to collapse – understood as crossing thresholds beyond which they can no longer maintain essential functions or recover on human timescales.

Particular attention is given to systems that are both highly biodiverse and central to the Earth’s life-support functions: the Amazon and Congo rainforests, the world’s boreal forests, the Himalayan “water towers”, and the coral reefs and mangroves of South East Asia. Disruption or collapse in these systems, the assessment argues, would drive sharp increases in water stress, crop failure, coastal risk, loss of fisheries, large releases of stored carbon, shifts in disease dynamics and profound changes in regional and global weather patterns.

The assessment is clear that the UK is not insulated from these processes. It notes that on existing diets, we are reliant on imported food, feed, fertiliser and other critical inputs. In the face of escalating ecosystem damage alongside intensifying competition for resources, the report states that without major investments in resilience, the UK will struggle to maintain food security and economic stability.

But these risks are not limited to food, the report confirms. Ecosystem degradation and collapse is amplifying the risks of floods, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires and this is undermining public health and destabilising regions through displacement, economic shocks and geopolitical competition. The report is explicit that biodiversity loss is thus now a strategic security issue which is unlikely to be contained within national borders.

This mirrors the latest global risk analysis of the World Economic Forum: the Global Risks Report 2026 ranks biodiversity loss as the second most severe global risk over the next decade, surpassed only by extreme weather events. The UK’s security assessment is therefore not an outlier, but a national expression of globally recognised systemic risk.

In the language of security analysis, this is a multi-hazard, systemic risk: multiple hazards occurring together or in sequence, interacting with existing vulnerabilities in ways that can overwhelm systems that appear robust when examined in isolation.

Aligning scientific risk assessment with UK national security planning

At the National Emergency Briefing – organised by the non-partisan National Emergency Briefing initiative – ten experts spelt out how climate breakdown and nature loss are converging to create compounding risks for the UK. Professor Nathalie Seddon, Director of NbSI, argued that “We are facing a national emergency not only because the climate is changing, but because the living systems that regulate that climate, protect our homes, and feed our people are breaking down –  here, in one of the most nature-depleted nations on Earth”.

The government’s assessment reinforces the central message of her speech: ecosystems are critical infrastructure. They play key roles in regulating floods, protecting coastlines, cooling our cities, storing carbon, and supporting resilient food production and physical and mental health. When they are degraded, those protective functions weaken; when they are restored, they provide a measurable reduction in risk.

What is new about the government’s assessment is not so much the underlying science  – many of the biophysical risks have been documented for years and highlighted in IPCC and IPBES reports. The difference, the advance here, is the institutional context and the framing: This is a national security framing beginning to catch up with the evidence.

“Nature is the living foundation of our food, our water, and a stable climate. When we restore biodiverse ecosystems, we strengthen resilience, support livelihoods, and renew the conditions for a safe and prosperous country. This assessment shows that biodiversity loss is not a distant environmental worry but a real and growing national security risk, one that deserves the same seriousness and attention as any other threat facing the UK.” Prof Nathalie Seddon

Why nature-based solutions are central to security

Examples include:

• Restoring wetlands, peatlands, floodplains and coastal habitats to reduce flood peaks and storm-surge impacts while storing carbon and supporting biodiversity;
• Regenerating soils, hedgerows and pollinator habitats to stabilise yields, reduce dependence on external inputs and support farm livelihoods;
• Expanding urban forests, parks and blue-green infrastructure to reduce heat stress, improve air quality and enhance mental health.
• See further examples on our case study platform

The evidence that these interventions reduce risk is growing rapidly, including in the UK. For instance, recent analyses show that natural flood management schemes can provide very high benefit–cost ratios when avoided damages and co-benefits are included, while urban trees have been shown to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity in major cities.

Nature-based solutions are therefore not just luxuries or green add-ons; they are a core component of any credible adaptation and security strategy. 

The need for open, science-based communication

One of the most significant aspects of the assessment lies not only in what it concludes, but in how little public discussion there is on this topic. Despite global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse being significant threats to UK national security, there has been no formal public briefing on this topic…yet. By contrast, the National Emergency Briefing was deliberately public, livestreamed and recorded, with the explicit aim of bringing high-level scientific and security analysis into the open. This difference matters. In the context of systemic risk, public understanding is not a luxury; it is itself a form of resilience.

If people are to support and participate in the kinds of changes implied by the assessment, they need to understand the drivers, the risks and the options in an honest, evidence-based way.

Where we go from here

The government’s own security assessment now acknowledges that ecosystem collapse threatens UK food security, economic stability and international security, and that protecting and restoring ecosystems is critical for adaptation.

We recognise three broad directions of travel.

First, we should treat healthy ecosystems as critical national infrastructure, every bit as essential to resilience as roads, power lines, or data networks. That means funding and protecting them accordingly, and embedding nature into national risk assessments and resilience planning. In practice, it means mainstreaming high-integrity nature-based solutions across flood risk management, health policy, urban planning, and long-term support for farming communities, not as add-ons, but as core protections.

Second, the rules of our economic and financial system need to be brought back into alignment with ecological stability. The logic of the assessment points to a hard truth: we cannot keep paying for our own exposure. That means phasing out subsidies and investment flows that degrade ecosystems, and strengthening disclosure and management of nature-related financial risks. Frameworks such as the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures are a start, but we need to build on them, improve them, and use them to shift capital toward activities that restore, rather than erode, the foundations of prosperity.

Third, the UK needs an open, scientifically grounded public conversation about systemic risk, and what it means for everyday security and wellbeing. The public deserves to know what is at stake, and to be part of shaping a response that is both just and effective, including where nature-based solutions can genuinely help. Initiatives such as the National Emergency Briefing are one contribution, but they must be matched by clear communication from government and sustained engagement with communities, farmers, Indigenous and local knowledge-holders, and young people.

“This report is clear-eyed about the scale of the challenge, but it is also clear that solutions exist. Targeted protection, ecosystem restoration, and sustained public investment can still bend the curve of loss. The deeper task of course is to realign incentives, because trillions of pounds each year continue to flow into activities that undermine the climate system and the living world on which our security depends. I just hope this report can help decision makers see that shifting finance toward nature is not a cost, but key to long-term resilience and prosperity.” – Prof Nathalie Seddon

 

At NbSI, we will continue to work with partners across research, policy and practice to ensure that responses to this assessment are grounded in the best available science, guided by principles of justice and co-stewardship. The message from science and security analysis is converging: protecting and restoring nature is now central to protecting national security and the well-being of future generations.

 

Watch Prof Nathalie Seddon’s expert briefing here: Nature – National Emergency Briefing