Bibliography
Welcome to our interactive bibliography. Here you can explore publications relating to Nature-based Solutions and their potential to address societal challenges, including climate change adaptation & mitigation, disaster risk reduction, ecosystem health, food & water security, and human wellbeing & development. For papers and other outputs directly produced by the Nature-based Solutions Initiative please visit our outputs page.
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711 publications found
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Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023) (2023). Communication.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5Abstract
The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2.
Community-based adaptationClimate change adaptationClimate change mitigationRealizing the social value of impermanent carbon credits
Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 1172–1178 (2023) (2023). Review.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01815-0Abstract
Efforts to avert dangerous climate change by conserving and restoring natural habitats are hampered by concerns over the credibility of methods used to quantify their long-term impacts. Here we develop a flexible framework for estimating the net social benefit of impermanent nature-based interventions that integrates three substantial advances: (1) conceptualizing the permanence of a project’s impact as its additionality over time; (2) risk-averse estimation of the social cost of future reversals of carbon gains; and (3) post-credit monitoring to correct errors in deliberately pessimistic release forecasts. Our framework generates incentives for safeguarding already credited carbon while enabling would-be investors to make like-for-like comparisons of diverse carbon projects. Preliminary analyses suggest nature-derived credits may be competitively priced even after adjusting for impermanence.
Community-based adaptationClimate change mitigationMainstreaming biodiversity and livelihood through Trees on Farms and agroforestry in Indonesia
CIFOR landscape ecology, land use planning (2023). Perspective.
https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/9002/Abstract
For the success of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, it will no longer be sufficient to seek to limit biodiversity loss through agriculture. Instead, agriculture must become an integral element of sustainable landscapes a force for conserving biodiversity and providing vital ecosystem services to local populations and securing livelihoods.
Trees on Farms (TonF) play a critical role in contributing to biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes through in-situ conservation, by connecting fragmented wild habitats and providing stepping-stones between protected area networks and conserving soil biodiversity and agrobiodiversity. TonF are one of the key nature-based solutions to the conservation and food production challenges we face as they also play a critical role in achieving sustainable, biodiversity friendly agricultural landscapes.
Nature-based agricultural systemsEcosystem healthNature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050
Global Change Biology (2023). Review.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16984Abstract
Most of the world’s nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil’s chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil’s Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.
Natural resource managementClimate change adaptationAmazon deforestation causes strong regional warming
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Vol. 120 | No. 45 November 7, 2023 (2023). Meta-Analysis.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2309123120Abstract
Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land–atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land–surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2–100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon.
Ecosystem-based adaptationClimate change adaptationForestRestoring Fire-Affected Soils: The Potential of Nature-Based Solutions
Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health (2023). Review.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coesh.2023.100520Abstract
Wildfires, exacerbated by climate change and human activities, threaten global ecosystems and societies. Urgent soil restoration strategies are needed to combat the resulting land degradation. Nature-based solutions (NBS) are emerging as sustainable methods to revitalize fire-affected soils and improve ecosystem recovery and resilience. Herein we provide an overview of key NBS strategies, namely microbial soil remediation, biochar application, mulching, seeding, and erosion control. Challenges in scaling and standardizing NBS remain and require robust evaluation frameworks. Further research should quantify the effectiveness of NBS, facilitate its integration into policy and mitigation strategies, and promote public and scientific acceptance. NBS offers a proactive approach to address escalating wildfire risks and harness nature’s resilience to restore fire-affected landscapes and maintain the delicate balance between communities and ecosystems in the face of growing environmental challenges.
Nature-based solutions in generalEcosystem healthOpportunity Mapping for Nature-Based Solutions: Mitigating Storm Surge and Land Erosion in the Caribbean
Nature-Based Solutions (2023). Review.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2023.100095Abstract
The islands of the Caribbean are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to their low-lying coastal areas and location within the Atlantic basin’s hurricane belt. The UK Overseas Territory of Anguilla is one such island. The predicted increase in the severity of hurricanes and sea-level rise is highly likely to increase the flood risk of already vulnerable island communities. In this study, flood risk and erosion models are used to prioritise opportunity areas for nature-based restoration and to identify those that would have the greatest impact on coastal and in-land flood risk reduction. Two study sites in Anguilla were selected to highlight this ecologically-based modelling approach; Cove Bay and Pond, a degraded sand dune system and brackish pond, and the East End Pond, an Important Bird and Biodiversity Area that floods following heavy rainfall events. At the coastal site, the restoration of mangroves, sand dunes and coral reefs have the potential to provide flood risk reduction up to 500 m inland and protect homes, infrastructure and tourism developments. For the in-land East End Pond, areas of high erosion risk were predominately identified as bare or disturbed land within 1 km of the pond’s basin. Restoration of these areas was identified as having the greatest impact on reducing flood risk. The identification of optimal areas for habitat restoration and modelling the positive impact that habitat restoration can have in reducing flood risk are important tools that can be used to inform the implementation of nature-based solutions and also to advocate and justify such management activities to policy makers and landowners.
Ecological restorationDisaster risk reductionAnimal-borne sensors as a biologically informed lens on a changing climate
Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 1042–1054 (2023) (2023). Methodological Article.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01781-7Abstract
As climate change transforms the biosphere, more comprehensive and biologically relevant measurements of changing conditions are needed. Traditional climate measurements are often constrained by geographically static, coarse, sparse and biased sampling, and only indirect links to ecological responses. Here we discuss how animal-borne sensors can deliver spatially fine-grain, biologically fine-tuned, relevant sampling of climatic conditions in support of ecological and climatic forecasting. Millions of fine-scale meteorological observations from over a thousand species have already been collected by animal-borne sensors. We highlight the opportunities that these growing data have for the intersection of biodiversity and climate science, particularly in terrestrial environments. Tagged animals worldwide could close critical data gaps, provide insights about changing ecosystems and broadly function as active environmental sentinels.
Not applicableEcosystem healthLinking climate warming and land conversion to species’ range changes across Great Britain
Nat Commun 14, 6759 (2023) (2023). Systematic Review.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42475-0Abstract
Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.
Community-based adaptationClimate change adaptationGrasslandSoil organic carbon stocks in European croplands and grasslands: How much have we lost in the past decade?
Global Change Biology (2023). Meta-Analysis.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16992Abstract
The EU Soil Strategy 2030 aims to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural land to enhance soil health and support biodiversity as well as to offset greenhouse gas emissions through soil carbon sequestration. Therefore, the quantification of current SOC stocks and the spatial identification of the main drivers of SOC changes is paramount in the preparation of agricultural policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems in the EU. In this context, changes of SOC stocks (Δ SOCs) for the EU + UK between 2009 and 2018 were estimated by fitting a quantile generalized additive model (qGAM) on data obtained from the revisited points of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) performed in 2009, 2015 and 2018. The analysis of the partial effects derived from the fitted qGAM model shows that land use and land use change observed in the 2009, 2015 and 2018 LUCAS campaigns (i.e. continuous grassland [GGG] or cropland [CCC], conversion grassland to cropland (GGC or GCC) and vice versa [CGG or CCG]) was one of the main drivers of SOC changes. The CCC was the factor that contributed to the lowest negative change on Δ SOC with an estimated partial effect of −0.04 ± 0.01 g C kg−1 year−1, while the GGG the highest positive change with an estimated partial effect of 0.49 ± 0.02 g C kg−1 year−1. This confirms the C sequestration potential of converting cropland to grassland. However, it is important to consider that local soil and environmental conditions may either diminish or enhance the grassland’s positive effect on soil C storage. In the EU + UK, the estimated current (2018) topsoil (0–20 cm) SOC stock in agricultural land below 1000 m a.s.l was 9.3 Gt, with a Δ SOC of −0.75% in the period 2009–2018. The highest estimated SOC losses were concentrated in central-northern countries, while marginal losses were observed in the southeast.
Ecological restorationEcosystem healthGlobal warming in the pipeline
Oxford Open Climate Change (2023). Perspective.
https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008Abstract
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
Climate adaptation servicesClimate change mitigationCarbon sequestration in soils and climate change mitigation—Definitions and pitfalls
Global Change Biology (2023). Review.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16983Abstract
The term carbon (C) sequestration has not just become a buzzword but is something of a siren’s call to scientific communicators and media outlets. Carbon sequestration is the removal of C from the atmosphere and the storage, for example, in soil. It has the potential to partially compensate for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and is, therefore, an important piece in the global climate change mitigation puzzle. However, the term C sequestration is often used misleadingly and, while likely unintentional, can lead to the perpetuation of biased conclusions and exaggerated expectations about its contribution to climate change mitigation efforts. Soils have considerable potential to take up C but many are also in a state of continuous loss. In such soils, measures to build up soil C may only lead to a reduction in C losses (C loss mitigation) rather than result in real C sequestration and negative emissions. In an examination of 100 recent peer-reviewed papers on topics surrounding soil C, only 4% were found to have used the term C sequestration correctly. Furthermore, 13% of the papers equated C sequestration with C stocks. The review, further, revealed that measures leading to C sequestration will not always result in climate change mitigation when non-CO2 greenhouse gases and leakage are taken into consideration. This paper highlights potential pitfalls when using the term C sequestration incorrectly and calls for accurate usage of this term going forward. Revised and new terms are suggested to distinguish clearly between C sequestration in soils, SOC loss mitigation, negative emissions, climate change mitigation, SOC storage, and SOC accrual to avoid miscommunication among scientists and stakeholder groups in future.
Climate adaptation servicesClimate change mitigationDeriving targeted intervention packages of nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
Nature-Based Solutions (2023). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2023.100090Abstract
Emergent complex climate risks challenge conventional approaches for climate adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR). This situation demands new ways of addressing climate risks with integrated solutions. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are promising CCA and DRR given their cost-effectiveness, multifunctionality and low-regret condition in addressing a wide range of risks exacerbated by climate change. However, little attention has been paid to exploring methodological approaches for combining NbS to reduce climate risks. Still, selecting the appropriate and effective combination of NbS is a challenging task. This research applies a geospatial multi-criteria approach for developing intervention packages of NbS for CCA and DRR and applies this innovative methodology to a case study area in the Puna region in Peru. The study started with an in-depth literature analysis coupled with a participatory process with local experts to identify and select locally valid NbS for CCA and DRR. Building upon that, the overall multi-criteria approach was developed, which consists of a matrix-based procedure to evaluate the applicability of relevant measures and their feasibility of being combined in intervention packages. Then, the multi-criteria analysis was integrated into a Geographic Information System using a spatial analysis model to map suitable intervention areas. Next to the methodological innovation, the multi-criteria approach was applied to a case study area to generate a place-based intervention package for addressing the risk of reduced water provision considering climate change conditions, with its respective potential intervention sites differentiated by the appropriate measures. This methodological approach is a novel and pragmatic support tool that helps practitioners design more robust and effective interventions for building resilience to climate change. Furthermore, this methodological approach involves shifting the perspective from activities focused on “one-size-fits-all-solution” to “multi-solution” strategic interventions that address climate risks more comprehensively, recognizing the dynamics and complexities of the social-ecological systems. The authors encourage researchers and practitioners to transfer the methodological approach to other contexts and, with that, accelerate the efficient and targeted implementation of NbS for building resilience to climate change.
Climate change adaptationDisaster risk reductionGrasslandMontaneContribution of the Amazon protected areas program to forest conservation
Biological Conservation (2023). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.109928Abstract
Established in 2002, the Amazon Protected Areas Program (ARPA) supports 120 Conservation Units (CUs) in the Brazilian Amazon, covering 62 Mha. Here, we quantified the impact of ARPA support on reducing deforestation and CO2 emissions between 2008 and 2020. We started by examining critical methodological choices, often brushed over in the impact evaluation studies on protected areas (PAs). We then applied a covariate balancing method to control for variation in covariates so as to compare differences in deforestation between Strictly Protected (SP) and Sustainable Use (SU) CUs with and without ARPA support as well as to assess the influence of ARPA investment mechanism on the differential reductions. Next, we estimated total reductions in deforestation and CO2 emissions by using the Adjusted Odds Ratio. We found that ARPA support accounts for additional deforestation reductions of 9 % in SP CUs and 39 % in SU CUs in relation to non-supported CUs. The effects of ARPA investment mechanism were statistically significant for both categories of CUs. CUs plus Indigenous Lands (i.e., PAs) reduced by 21 % (2.0 ± 0.3 Mha) Amazon deforestation between 2008 and 2020. Of this total, ARPA CUs accounts for 264 ± 25 thousand ha, the equivalent of 104 ± 10 Mtons of CO2 emissions. If deforestation continues unabated, PAs will become the last citadels of the Amazon. However, protecting the Amazon only with PAs does not suffice. Additional investments in a comprehensive conservation policy mix are needed along with a monitoring and evaluation strategy to provide evidence on what works for effective and socially equitable forest conservation.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationEcosystem healthForestFinancing Nature-Based Solutions for Adaptation at Scale: Learning from Specialised Investment Managers and Nature Funds
Global Center on Adaptation and Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford (2023). Grey Literature. Review.
https://gca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Financing_NbS_for_Adaptation-GCAOxford2023-finalv2-1.pdfAbstract
Scaling funding to effective nature-based solutions (NbS) for adaptation is key to tackle climate change and support sustainable development. NbS can play a crucial role in adaptation and investments deliver multidimensional benefits for climate mitigation, resilience, people and livelihoods as well as the protection, maintenance, or enhancement of biodiversity. UNEP estimates that approximately $11tn of investment in NbS is required between 2022 to 2050, equating to over $500bn of annual investment by 2030. This means that investment into NbS needs to be quickly and drastically scaled from its current levels of around $200bn per year.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationFood and water securityHuman well-being & developmentYoung mixed planted forests store more carbon than monocultures—a meta-analysis
Front. For. Glob. Change. (2023). Meta-Analysis. Systematic Review.
https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1226514Abstract
Although decades of research suggest that higher species richness improves ecosystem functioning and stability, planted forests are predominantly monocultures. To determine whether diversification of plantations would enhance aboveground carbon storage, we systematically reviewed over 11,360 publications, and acquired data from a global network of tree diversity experiments. We compiled a maximum dataset of 79 monoculture to mixed comparisons from 21 sites with all variables needed for a meta-analysis. We assessed aboveground carbon stocks in mixed-species planted forests vs. (a) the average of monocultures, (b) the best monoculture, and (c) commercial species monocultures, and examined potential mechanisms driving differences in carbon stocks between mixtures and monocultures. On average, we found that aboveground carbon stocks in mixed planted forests were 70% higher than the average monoculture, 77% higher than commercial monocultures, and 25% higher than the best performing monocultures, although the latter was not statistically significant. Overyielding was highest in four-species mixtures (richness range 2–6 species), but otherwise none of the potential mechanisms we examined (nitrogen-fixer present vs. absent; native vs. non-native/mixed origin; tree diversity experiment vs. forestry plantation) consistently explained variation in the diversity effects. Our results, predominantly from young stands, thus suggest that diversification could be a very promising solution for increasing the carbon sequestration of planted forests and represent a call to action for more data to increase confidence in these results and elucidate methods to overcome any operational challenges and costs associated with diversification.
Climate change mitigationEcosystem healthForest