Bibliography
Welcome to our interactive bibliography. Here you can explore publications relating to Nature-based Solutions and their potential to address societal challenges, including climate change adaptation & mitigation, disaster risk reduction, ecosystem health, food & water security, and human wellbeing & development. For papers and other outputs directly produced by the Nature-based Solutions Initiative please visit our outputs page.
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711 publications found
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Modelled effectiveness of NbS in reducing disaster risk: Evidence from the OPERANDUM project
Nature-Based Solutions (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2024.100127Abstract
The use of nature-based solutions (NbS) to address the risks posed by hydro-meteorological hazards have not yet become part of the mainstream policy response, and one of the main reasons cited for this, is the lack of evidence that they can effectively reduce disaster risk. This paper addresses this issue, by providing model-based evidence from five European case studies which demonstrate the effectiveness of five different NbS in reducing the magnitude of the hazard and thus risk, in present-day and possible future climates. In OAL-Austria, the hazard is a deep-seated landslide, and the NbS analysed is afforestation. Modelling results show that in today’s climate and a landcover scenario of mature forest, a reduction in landslide velocity of 27.6 % could be achieved. In OAL-Germany, the hazard is river flooding and the NbS analysed is managed grazing with removal of woody vegetation. Modelling results show that the NbS could potentially reduce maximum flood water depth in the near-future (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099), by 0.036 m and 0.155 m, respectively. In OAL-Greece, the hazard is river flooding, and the NbS is upscaled natural storage reservoirs. Modelling results show that in a possible future climate the upscaled NbS show most potential in reducing the total flooded area by up to 1.26 km2. In OAL-Ireland, the hazard is surface and river flooding, and the NbS is green roofs. Results from a modelled upscaling analysis under two different climate scenarios show that both maximum flood water depth, and total flooded area were able to be reduced. In OAL-UK, the hazard is shallow landslides, and the NbS is high-density planting of two different tree species. Modelling results under two different climate scenarios show that both tree species were able to improve slope stability, and that this increased over time as the NbS matured. The significance of these results is discussed within the context of the performance of the NbS over time, to different magnitude events, impact with stakeholders in engendering wider support for the adoption of the NbS in the OALs, and the uncertainty in the modelling analyses.
Climate change adaptationDisaster risk reductionHuman well-being & developmentForestGrasslandWetlandMapping the risk reduction benefits of coral reef conservation – Hawaii case study
Nature-Based Solutions (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2024.100128Abstract
Effective disaster risk reduction measures are vital to coastal communities around the world. While nature-based solutions provide coastal communities with a promising alternative to traditional engineering-based solutions; these solutions are often overlooked by communities when planning and implementing disaster risk reduction measures. This study builds upon the literature that demonstrates the effectiveness of coral reef conservation to mitigate coastal flood risk. Our approach utilizes freely available tools and data to quantify the economic value of coral reef conservation for the Hawaiian Islands. We explore a scenario that depicts coastal flooding if the upper 1 m of the coral reef were to be lost. The study analyzes the Average Annual Loss (AAL) and losses avoided based on a series of 4 coastal flood scenario return periods with and without coral reefs. This case study finds that the preservation of the upper 1 m of coral reefs for the main islands of Hawaiʻi provides the state with $629 million in annual losses avoided to buildings. A hot spot analysis of the losses avoided identifies areas where conservation efforts could be prioritized. Our findings provide additional support to the use of nature-based solutions as an effective disaster risk reduction measure, and provides communities and stakeholders with a methodology that can be implemented using readily available data and tools.
Climate change adaptationDisaster risk reductionHuman well-being & developmentCoastlineMarineFor resilient rural shorelines: reviewing Nature-based Solutions for flood risk reduction in small coastal communities
Nature-Based Solutions (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2024.100189Abstract
Coastal flood risk poses a serious, existential threat to shoreline populations around the world both now and in the future. Unsurprisingly, global decision makers are considering their options – one of these being Nature-based Solutions – for effective disaster risk reduction which specifically targets coastal flooding. While strides have been made in the field of Nature-based Solutions for coastal flooding, much of this attention has been directed towards the urban setting, with a wealth of scholastic documentation to support this notion. The sizeable rural populations scattered throughout the world’s small coastal communities, meanwhile, have been largely neglected in academic literature. Without this information, it is impossible to properly capture the full potential of Nature-based Solutions in (global) flood risk modelling endeavours or understand their role in the future of equitable disaster risk reduction. In light of this gap, we have reviewed the limited amount of existing literature from around the world involving the implementation and effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions in small coastal communities. We analysed 28 peer-reviewed studies to gather common themes and insights about the barriers and opportunities unique to these rural shorelines. Takeaways we have identified include a near consistent scarcity of resources (e.g., technical, financial, institutional) to implement disaster risk reduction measures; an abundance of space and opportune land use regimes which make Nature-based Solutions a highly plausible option; amplified nature contributions to people leading to larger benefits reaped from investments into Nature-based Solutions; and the presence of local knowledge regarding societal norms, climate patterns, and ecosystem capabilities. We argue that these four common themes point to the fact that more attention must be given to coastal flooding-focused Nature-based Solutions in the rural setting. As such, we present this collation as a starting point for future projects of similar setting and scope. We also recommend improving benefit-cost analysis methods as well as including local knowledge and other perspectives in future global assessments of coastal flood risk.
Climate change adaptationDisaster risk reductionHuman well-being & developmentCoastlineComplementary functions of created wetlands along river channels and rice paddies in floodplain biodiversity conservation
Nature-Based Solutions (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2024.100190Abstract
The creation of wetlands along river channels, or inter-levee floodplain wetlands (ILWs), increases the cross-sectional area of rivers for flood control and is an effective nature-based solution (NbS) that is expected to achieve both flood control and biodiversity conservation in floodplains in riverine areas in Japan. To clarify the differences in habitat functions between ILWs and rice paddy fields, we surveyed the species assemblage and habitat usage of aquatic animal assemblages in ILWs and nearby rice paddies in the Nobi Plain of central Japan. Rana japonica bred in the ILWs, and taxon numbers of Odonata larvae and aquatic Hemiptera were greater in ILWs than in rice paddies. Fish taxa were also more abundant in the ILWs. ILWs were characterized mainly by taxa with a preference for permanent water bodies in their life history, whereas Dryophytes japonicus, Pelophylax porosus brevipodus, and Fejervarya kawamurai inhabited and bred mainly in the rice paddies, and the number of taxa of aquatic Coleoptera was also higher. The assemblages in the rice paddies were characterized by pioneer taxa with a preference for temporary waters as their primary breeding sites. Our results show that the creation of ILWs for flood control and the maintenance of rice paddies could help to conserve the original floodplain biodiversity through the complementarity of these different wetland types.
Climate change adaptationDisaster risk reductionFood and water securityHuman well-being & developmentWetlandExploring social contracts of disaster risk through twitter narratives during a major storm
Nature-Based Solutions (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nbsj.2024.100197Abstract
Social contracts are evolving relationships between the government and the public; they describe the rights and responsibilities of each party in catastrophic hydroclimatic events. As the climate crisis unfolds disaster losses continue to increase and the need for new infrastructure is becoming more apparent. Research suggests that incorporating Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into infrastructure adaptations may reduce exposure and loss and improve social well-being. While researchers and policy makers push for NbS, it is unclear whether they adequately recognize contemporary social contracts and whether these contracts are shifting sufficiently to accept the differences. We operationalize social contracts and test a conceptual approach through analysis of tweets before, during and after Hurricane Ida. Our results indicate a social contract of inequalities manifested through experience, perceptions and expectations of citizens. There is a great deal of uncertainty and feelings of insecurity about the public’s perception of government response and resource provisions. Although our results indicated a gap in public perception of NbS, uncertainty about the effectiveness of conventional infrastructure was expressed. Public expectations include an evolving social contract that addresses the challenges related to inequalities while also adapting to climate change. We discuss how this twitter data can be used to understand the role of social contracts in responding to disaster risk and infrastructure adaptation and how inadequacies in current protection measures can inform potential use of NbS.
Climate change adaptationDisaster risk reductionHuman well-being & developmentGlobal evidence of human well-being and biodiversity impacts of natural climate solutions
Nature (2024). Original Research. Systematic Review.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01454-zAbstract
Natural climate solutions (NCS) play a critical role in climate change mitigation. NCS can generate win–win co-benefits for biodiversity and human well-being, but they can also involve trade-offs (co-impacts). However, the massive evidence base on NCS co-benefits and possible trade-offs is poorly understood. We employ large language models to assess over 2 million published journal articles, primarily written in English, finding 257,266 relevant studies on NCS co-impacts. Using machine learning methods to extract data (for example, study location, species and other key variables), we create a global evidence map on NCS co-impacts. We find that global evidence on NCS co-impacts has grown approximately tenfold in three decades, and some of the most abundant evidence relates to NCS that have lower mitigation potential. Studies often examine multiple NCS, indicating some natural complementarities. Finally, we identify countries with high carbon mitigation potential but a relatively weak body of evidence on NCS co-impacts. Through effective methods and systematic and representative data on NCS co-impacts, we provide timely insights to inform NCS-related research and action globally.
Climate change mitigationEcosystem healthHuman well-being & developmentGlobal Metrics for Terrestrial Biodiversity
Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2024). Review.
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-121522-045106Abstract
Biodiversity metrics are increasingly in demand for informing government, business, and civil society decisions. However, it is not always clear to end users how these metrics differ or for what purpose they are best suited. We seek to answer these questions using a database of 573 biodiversity-related metrics, indicators, indices, and layers, which address aspects of genetic diversity, species, and ecosystems. We provide examples of indicators and their uses within the state–pressure–response–benefits framework that is widely used in conservation science. Considering complementarity across this framework, we recommend a small number of metrics considered most pertinent for use in decision-making by governments and businesses. We conclude by highlighting five future directions: increasing the importance of national metrics, ensuring wider uptake of business metrics, agreeing on a minimum set of metrics for government and business use, automating metric calculation through use of technology, and generating sustainable funding for metric production.
Ecosystem healthOver-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges
Nature (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0Abstract
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges and indicates a need for more transparency around the role of land in national climate mitigation plans.
Climate change mitigationGlobal potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions
Nature (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08106-4Abstract
Extensive forest restoration is a key strategy to meet nature-based sustainable development goals and provide multiple social and environmental benefits1. Yet achieving forest restoration at scale requires cost-effective methods2. Tree planting in degraded landscapes is a popular but costly forest restoration method that often results in less biodiverse forests when compared to natural regeneration techniques under similar conditions3. Here we assess the current spatial distribution of pantropical natural forest (from 2000 to 2016) and use this to present a model of the potential for natural regeneration across tropical forested countries and biomes at a spatial resolution of 30 m. We estimate that an area of 215 million hectares—an area greater than the entire country of Mexico—has potential for natural forest regeneration, representing an above-ground carbon sequestration potential of 23.4 Gt C (range, 21.1–25.7 Gt) over 30 years. Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico and Colombia) account for 52% of this estimated potential, showcasing the need for targeting restoration initiatives that leverage natural regeneration potential. Our results facilitate broader equitable decision-making processes that capitalize on the widespread opportunity for natural regeneration to help achieve national and global environmental agendas.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationEcosystem healthForestNatural forest regeneration is projected to reduce local temperatures
Nature (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01737-5Abstract
Forest regeneration is a crucial strategy for mitigating and adapting to global warming. Yet its precise impact on local climate remains uncertain, a factor that complicates decision-making when it comes to prioritizing investments. Here, we developed global maps illustrating how natural forest regeneration influences key local climate drivers—land surface temperature (LST), albedo, and evapotranspiration—using models fitted at a 1-km spatial resolution with a random forest classifier. We found that natural forest regeneration can alter annual mean LST by 0.01 °C, −0.59 °C, −0.50 °C, and −2.03 °C in Boreal, Mediterranean, Temperate, and Tropical regions, respectively. These variations underscore the region-specific effects of forest regeneration. Importantly, natural forest regeneration reduces LST across 64% of 1 billion hectares and 75% of 148 million hectares of potentially restorable land under different scenarios. These findings improve understanding of how forest regeneration can help regulate local climate, supporting climate adaptation efforts.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationEcosystem healthForestNature-based credit markets at a crossroads
Nature Sustainability (2024). Perspective.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01403-wAbstract
Continuing to produce nature-based credits using dubious accounting methodologies will yield limited carbon and biodiversity gains. Establishing scientific credibility unlocks the potential of credits to meaningfully contribute to targets of the Paris and Kunming-Montreal agreements.
Ecosystem healthHuman well-being & developmentWin-wins or trade-offs? Site and strategy determine carbon and local ecosystem service benefits for protection, restoration, and agroforestry
Front. Environ. Sci (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1432654Abstract
Nature-based solutions (NBS) can deliver many benefits to human wellbeing, including some crucial to climate adaptation. We quantitatively assess the global potential of NBS strategies of protection, restoration, and agroforestry by modeling global climate change mitigation and local ecosystem services (water availability, sediment retention, runoff, pollination, nitrogen retention, green water storage, and coastal protection). The strategies with the most potential to help people do not necessarily deliver the most climate change mitigation: per area of conservation action, agroforestry provides substantial benefits (>20% increase in at least one local ecosystem service) to three times more people on average than reforestation while providing less than one tenth the carbon sequestration per unit area. Each strategy delivers a different suite of ecosystem service benefits; for instance, avoided forest conversion provides a strong increase in nitrogen retention (100% increase to 72 million people if fully implemented globally) while agroforestry increases pollination services (100% increase to 3.0 billion people if fully implemented globally). One common disservice shared by all the NBS strategies modeled here is that increased woody biomass increases transpiration, reducing annual runoff and in some watersheds negatively impacting local water availability. In addition, the places with the greatest potential for climate change mitigation are not necessarily the ones with the most people. For instance, reforestation in Latin America has the greatest climate change mitigation potential, but the greatest ecosystem service benefits are in Africa. Focusing on nations with high climate mitigation potential as well as high local ecosystem service potential, such as Nigeria in the case of reforestation, India for agroforestry, and the Republic of Congo for avoided forest conversion, can help identify win-win sites for implementation. We find that concentrating implementation of these three conservation strategies in critical places, covering 5.8 million km2, could benefit 2.0 billion people with increased local ecosystem services provision. These critical places cover only 35% of the possible area of implementation but would provide 80% of the benefits that are possible globally for the selected set of ecosystem services under the NBS scenarios examined here. We conclude that targeting these critical places for protection, restoration, and agroforestry interventions will be key to achieving adaptation and human wellbeing goals while also increasing nature-based carbon mitigation.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationEcosystem healthHuman well-being & developmentForestOtherThe Cerrado: Production and Protection
World Economic Forum (2024). Grey Literature.
https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-cerrado-production-and-protectionAbstract
The Cerrado is the second largest biome in Latin America and the most biodiverse savanna in the world. Yet it has lost half its native vegetation to agriculture – and conversion is accelerating. Urgent action is needed to balance production with protection, in a way that delivers gains for climate, nature and people.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationDisaster risk reductionEcosystem healthFood and water securityHuman well-being & developmentSavannaART’s Controversial Certification of Carbon Credits to the Government of Guyana: A Case Study on Challenges for “High-Integrity” Labels in Carbon Markets
PDF (2024). Grey Literature.
https://shorturl.at/3gFMZAbstract
The voluntary carbon market has come under intense scrutiny over concerns around the environmental and social integrity of the carbon credits being sold. Even certification bodies are seemingly incapable of delivering on their promise to certify “high-integrity” credits. The certification of jurisdictional REDD+ carbon credits by the Architecture for REDD+ Transactions (ART) to the Government of Guyana (GoG) in December 2022 provides an important case study on the challenges facing the high-integrity carbon market.
Climate change mitigationHuman well-being & developmentLandscape and management influences on smallholder agroforestry yields show shifts during a climate shock
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment (2024). Original Research.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2024.108930Abstract
Sustaining yields for smallholder perennial agriculture under a rapidly changing climate regime may require consideration of landscape features and on-farm management decisions in tandem. Optimising landscape and management may not be possible for maximising yields in any one year but maintaining heterogeneous landscapes could be an important climate adaptation strategy. In this study, we observed elevation, forest patch and shade management gradients affecting smallholder coffee (Coffea arabica) yields in a ‘normal’ year versus the 2015/16 El Niño. We generally found a benefit to yields from having leguminous shade trees and low canopy openness, while maintaining diverse shade or varying canopy openness had more complex influences during a climate shock. The two years of observed climate shock were dominated by either drought or high temperatures, with yield responses generally negative. Climate projections for East Africa predict more erratic rainfall and higher temperatures, which will disproportionately impact smallholder farmers.
Climate change adaptationFood and water securityHuman well-being & developmentOtherIdentification and assessment of best practice in nature-based solutions for climate action and ecosystem restoration in Ireland
Climate Change Advisory Council (2024). Grey Literature. Policy Brief.
https://shorturl.at/OXHZvAbstract
This small-scale study identifies the best practice current and emerging NBS in Ireland, through literature review and consultation with experts in the field, which have exhibited the potential to mitigate climate change and its impacts or enable adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Some of the case studies identified in this review may not have been implemented as NBS, but they tackle specific climate and societal problems while also providing ecosystem services, as well as benefits to human well-being and biodiversity.
Climate change adaptationClimate change mitigationEcosystem healthHuman well-being & developmentOther